A valuation of Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) built from its filed accounts — ten years of results, the method that fits this business, and what today's price already assumes.
We do not publish one number for Mahindra & Mahindra — and here is why.
On today's figures our model puts Mahindra & Mahindra at roughly 2.8 times what the market pays for it. On a company this widely followed, a gap that large almost always means our model is missing something rather than that thousands of investors are wrong. So we show the workings and say plainly that we cannot stand behind a single figure here.
Worked backwards from today's share price: the growth Mahindra & Mahindra must sustain to justify what it costs, against what its own record supports.
How to read this. The number on the left is what today’s share price quietly takes for granted about the future. The number on the right is what Mahindra & Mahindra has actually managed over the last ten years. When the two are far apart, that gap is the bet you would be taking.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit as filed, in ₹ crore.
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2017 | 83,773 | 4,051 | 4.8% |
| Mar 2018 | 92,094 | 7,958 | 8.6% |
| Mar 2019 | 1,04,721 | 6,017 | 5.7% |
| Mar 2020 | 75,382 | -321 | -0.4% |
| Mar 2021 | 74,278 | 1,512 | 2.0% |
| Mar 2022 | 90,171 | 7,253 | 8.0% |
| Mar 2023 | 1,21,362 | 11,374 | 9.4% |
| Mar 2024 | 1,39,078 | 12,270 | 8.8% |
| Mar 2025 | 1,59,211 | 14,073 | 8.8% |
| Mar 2026 | 1,98,639 | 18,622 | 9.4% |
Our model and the market disagree so far apart on this company that the model is the more likely one to be wrong. Rather than publish a number we cannot stand behind, we show the workings and say so.
Estimate withheld — model and market disagree too farThe same valuation, run side by side.
Mahindra & Mahindra vs Maruti SuzukiUtility vehicles and tractors against passenger cars.→Mahindra & Mahindra vs Tata MotorsThe nearest peer on scale and product spread.→Mahindra & Mahindra vs Escorts KubotaTractors head to head, without the auto business.→At ₹3,455 the market is pricing in roughly 6% sustained growth, against the ~20% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.
A price-to-earnings of 22.6 and price-to-book of 4.61 sit against a return on equity of 20.3%. Whether that multiple is deserved depends on how durable the return is — which is exactly what the valuation tests.
Revenue went from ₹0.84 lakh crore to ₹1.99 lakh crore over the period shown, while return on equity moved from 19.6% to 18.8%. Growing scale on a rising return is a very different proposition from growing scale on a falling one.
The dividend yield is 0.96%, so effectively the entire return has to come from the share price.
Debt to equity stands at 1.47, down from 1.64 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.
From published financial statements. The method is chosen to fit the business — a bank on excess return, a regulated utility on its rate base, a conglomerate by its parts — and every assumption is shown with its source. When the numbers do not support an estimate, no estimate is published. This is an educational research tool: it reports what the model computed and does not recommend buying or selling anything.
A cost of capital of 9.61%, growth drawn from the company's own record rather than from guidance, and the valuation method that fits the business. All of them are listed in the report, with how much each one moves the answer.