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We do not publish one number for Adani Energy Solutions — and here is why.
On today's figures the market pays roughly 3.6 times what our model says Adani Energy Solutions is worth. On a company this widely followed, a gap that large almost always means our model is missing something rather than that thousands of investors are wrong. So we show the workings and say plainly that we cannot stand behind a single figure here.
- How it is valued: no single figure is published here — our model and the market disagree too far.
- What the price assumes: 21.6% return on equity, against 13.5% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2018 and FY2026, Adani Energy Solutions' revenue went from ₹3,944 crore to ₹27,588 crore — it compounded at about 28% a year over 8 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Transmission wins. Main risk: Leverage.
01India's largest private transmission company
Adani Energy Solutions, renamed from Adani Transmission in 2023, is India's largest private power-transmission company. It builds and operates high-voltage lines under regulated and competitively bid tariffs.
It also runs Adani Electricity Mumbai, which supplies power to the Mumbai suburbs, and has won large contracts to install smart electricity meters across several states.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the return on equity that price implies for Adani Energy Solutions, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03Adani Energy Solutions' record, in plain numbers
Between FY2018 and FY2026, Adani Energy Solutions' revenue went from ₹3,944 crore to ₹27,588 crore — it compounded at about 28% a year over 8 years. Net profit grew from ₹1,143 crore to ₹2,393 crore, about 10% a year — slower than revenue, so margins narrowed. In FY2026 it kept 8.7% of revenue as net profit — against a low of 3.9% in FY2025 and a high of 29.0% in FY2018. The latest year added 16.1% to revenue, well behind its own long-run pace. FY2020 is missing from the filed series used here, so that year is left out rather than estimated.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 3,944 | 1,143 | 29.0% |
| FY2019 | 7,305 | 559 | 7.7% |
| FY2021 | 9,926 | 1,290 | 13.0% |
| FY2022 | 11,258 | 1,947 | 17.3% |
| FY2023 | 13,293 | 2,316 | 17.4% |
| FY2024 | 16,607 | 1,196 | 7.2% |
| FY2025 | 23,767 | 922 | 3.9% |
| FY2026 | 27,588 | 2,393 | 8.7% |
04How Adani Energy Solutions gets valued — and why
Estimate withheld — model and market disagree too farOur model and the market disagree so far apart on this company that the model is the more likely one to be wrong. Rather than publish a number we cannot stand behind, we show the workings and say so.
05What decides Adani Energy Solutions' value
Transmission wins
New bid projects add regulated earnings.
Smart meters
Large metering contracts add a new revenue stream.
Mumbai distribution
Steady regulated returns.
Funding costs
Interest on heavy capex debt affects returns.
06What could go wrong
- Leverage. Capex is debt-funded.
- Group events. News about the Adani group can move the share.
- Execution. Large projects risk delays.
07What the full Adani Energy Solutions valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete Adani Energy Solutions valuation
- ✓Fair value per share — from the excess-return model used for regulated utilities
- ✓The utility workpaper — regulated book, allowed return and cost of equity, step by step
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Power Grid, Tata Power and other utilities
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about Adani Energy Solutions
Is Adani Energy Solutions the same as Adani Transmission?
Yes; Adani Transmission renamed itself in 2023.
What are smart meters?
Digital electricity meters that report usage remotely; the company installs them for state utilities.
Why is it valued as a regulated utility?
Most of its earnings come from regulated transmission and distribution assets.
Is Adani Energy Solutions overvalued?
At ₹1,438 the market is pricing in roughly 21.6% sustained ROE, against the ~13.5% its own record supports. That is more than it has delivered, so the price is justified only if the business can hold a rate it has not previously sustained.
What is the intrinsic value of Adani Energy Solutions?
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.
How much debt does Adani Energy Solutions carry?
Debt to equity stands at 1.87, down from 2.97 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.