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We do not publish one number for Adani Green — and here is why.
On today's figures the market pays roughly 3.5 times what our model says Adani Green is worth. On a company this widely followed, a gap that large almost always means our model is missing something rather than that thousands of investors are wrong. So we show the workings and say plainly that we cannot stand behind a single figure here.
- How it is valued: no single figure is published here — our model and the market disagree too far.
- What the price assumes: 25.9% return on equity, against 16.4% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2019 and FY2026, Adani Green's revenue went from ₹2,058 crore to ₹12,928 crore — it compounded at about 30% a year over 7 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Capacity additions. Main risk: Leverage.
01Solar and wind at enormous scale
Adani Green Energy, part of the Adani group with France's TotalEnergies as a large shareholder, builds and operates solar, wind and hybrid power plants. Most of its power is sold under 25-year contracts to government agencies and utilities.
Its biggest project is the Khavda renewable energy park in the Rann of Kutch, planned as one of the largest in the world. Growth is funded heavily with debt.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the return on equity that price implies for Adani Green, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03Adani Green's record, in plain numbers
Between FY2019 and FY2026, Adani Green's revenue went from ₹2,058 crore to ₹12,928 crore — it compounded at about 30% a year over 7 years. It reported a net loss in FY2019 and FY2020, and closed the period with net profit of ₹1,987 crore. In FY2026 it kept 15.4% of revenue as net profit — against a low of -23.1% in FY2019 and a high of 17.8% in FY2025. The latest year added 15.3% to revenue, well behind its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 2,058 | -475 | -23.1% |
| FY2020 | 2,549 | -68 | -2.7% |
| FY2021 | 3,124 | 182 | 5.8% |
| FY2022 | 5,133 | 489 | 9.5% |
| FY2023 | 7,792 | 973 | 12.5% |
| FY2024 | 9,220 | 1,260 | 13.7% |
| FY2025 | 11,212 | 2,001 | 17.8% |
| FY2026 | 12,928 | 1,987 | 15.4% |
04How Adani Green gets valued — and why
Estimate withheld — model and market disagree too farOur model and the market disagree so far apart on this company that the model is the more likely one to be wrong. Rather than publish a number we cannot stand behind, we show the workings and say so.
05What decides Adani Green's value
Capacity additions
New megawatts drive revenue growth.
Contracted tariffs
Long-term power-purchase agreements give steady revenue.
Funding costs
Interest rates on its large debt shape returns.
Plant performance
Solar and wind output determines earnings.
06What could go wrong
- Leverage. High debt magnifies any setback.
- Group and legal events. US charges against group executives in November 2024, which the group denies, raised funding concerns.
- Execution. Building at this scale risks delays.
07What the full Adani Green valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete Adani Green valuation
- ✓Fair value per share — from the excess-return model used for regulated utilities
- ✓The utility workpaper — regulated book, allowed return and cost of equity, step by step
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against NTPC, Tata Power and other power companies
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about Adani Green
What is the Khavda renewable park?
Adani Green's giant solar and wind project in the Rann of Kutch, Gujarat.
Who owns Adani Green?
The Adani group is the main shareholder; TotalEnergies holds a large stake.
Why is Adani Green's debt so high?
Renewable plants are capital-heavy and built mostly with borrowed money.
Is Adani Green overvalued?
At ₹1,403 the market is pricing in roughly 25.9% sustained ROE, against the ~16.4% its own record supports. That is more than it has delivered, so the price is justified only if the business can hold a rate it has not previously sustained.
What is the intrinsic value of Adani Green?
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.
How much debt does Adani Green carry?
Debt to equity stands at 5.14, against 11.62 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.