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We do not publish one number for Aditya Birla Capital — and here is why.
On today's figures our model puts Aditya Birla Capital at roughly 4.8 times what the market pays for it. On a company this widely followed, a gap that large almost always means our model is missing something rather than that thousands of investors are wrong. So we show the workings and say plainly that we cannot stand behind a single figure here.
- How it is valued: no single figure is published here — our model and the market disagree too far.
- What the price assumes: 0% growth, against 20% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2020 and FY2026, Aditya Birla Capital's revenue went from ₹16,792 crore to ₹45,509 crore — it compounded at about 18% a year over 6 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Loan growth. Main risk: Credit quality.
01The Aditya Birla group's financial arm
Aditya Birla Capital is the holding company for the Aditya Birla group's financial services. In 2024 it merged its lending subsidiary, Aditya Birla Finance, into itself, so it is now also a large non-bank lender.
It owns Aditya Birla Housing Finance, Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance, Aditya Birla Health Insurance and a stake in the listed Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC. Grasim is its largest shareholder.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for Aditya Birla Capital, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03Aditya Birla Capital's record, in plain numbers
Between FY2020 and FY2026, Aditya Birla Capital's revenue went from ₹16,792 crore to ₹45,509 crore — it compounded at about 18% a year over 6 years. Net profit grew from ₹866 crore to ₹3,864 crore, about 28% a year — faster than revenue, so margins widened. In FY2026 it kept 8.5% of revenue as net profit — against a low of 5.2% in FY2020 and a high of 17.6% in FY2023. The latest year added 12.1% to revenue, well behind its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | 16,792 | 866 | 5.2% |
| FY2021 | 19,248 | 1,106 | 5.7% |
| FY2022 | 22,230 | 1,660 | 7.5% |
| FY2023 | 27,416 | 4,824 | 17.6% |
| FY2024 | 34,506 | 3,439 | 10.0% |
| FY2025 | 40,590 | 3,410 | 8.4% |
| FY2026 | 45,509 | 3,864 | 8.5% |
04How Aditya Birla Capital gets valued — and why
Estimate withheld — model and market disagree too farOur model and the market disagree so far apart on this company that the model is the more likely one to be wrong. Rather than publish a number we cannot stand behind, we show the workings and say so.
05What decides Aditya Birla Capital's value
Loan growth
Lending is the largest profit engine.
Insurance value
Life and health insurers add value beyond reported profit.
Asset management
Fund fees grow with markets.
Holding-company discount
Markets may value the group below its parts.
06What could go wrong
- Credit quality. Unsecured and SME loans can sour.
- Regulation. Rules across lending and insurance can change.
- Complexity. Many businesses make the group harder to value.
07What the full Aditya Birla Capital valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete Aditya Birla Capital valuation
- ✓The full model workings — and exactly where the model and the market part ways
- ✓Every assumption — growth, returns and cost of capital, with sources
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank and other financial groups
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about Aditya Birla Capital
What does Aditya Birla Capital own?
Lending, housing finance, life and health insurance, and a stake in Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC.
Who is Aditya Birla Capital's largest shareholder?
Grasim Industries.
Why is Aditya Birla Capital hard to value?
Its businesses are valued in different ways, and holding companies often trade at a discount.
Is Aditya Birla Capital overvalued?
At ₹408 the market is pricing in roughly 0% sustained growth, against the ~20% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
What is the intrinsic value of Aditya Birla Capital?
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.
How much debt does Aditya Birla Capital carry?
Debt to equity stands at 3.12, against 2.75 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.