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We do not publish one number for Ashok Leyland — and here is why.
On today's figures our model puts Ashok Leyland at roughly 2.8 times what the market pays for it. On a company this widely followed, a gap that large almost always means our model is missing something rather than that thousands of investors are wrong. So we show the workings and say plainly that we cannot stand behind a single figure here.
- How it is valued: no single figure is published here — our model and the market disagree too far.
- What the price assumes: 0% growth, against 14% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2020 and FY2026, Ashok Leyland's revenue went from ₹21,951 crore to ₹56,362 crore — it compounded at about 17% a year over 6 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Truck cycle. Main risk: Cyclical downturns.
01The Hinduja group's truck maker
Ashok Leyland, the Chennai-based flagship of the Hinduja group, makes medium and heavy trucks, buses, light commercial vehicles and defence vehicles. It is one of the largest bus makers in the world.
Its consolidated accounts include Hinduja Leyland Finance, which lends to vehicle buyers, and Switch Mobility, its electric bus and van business.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for Ashok Leyland, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03Ashok Leyland's record, in plain numbers
Between FY2020 and FY2026, Ashok Leyland's revenue went from ₹21,951 crore to ₹56,362 crore — it compounded at about 17% a year over 6 years. It reported a net loss in FY2021 and FY2022, and closed the period with net profit of ₹3,721 crore. In FY2026 it kept 6.6% of revenue as net profit — against a low of -1.1% in FY2022 and a high of 7.0% in FY2025. The latest year added 16.1% to revenue, close to its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | 21,951 | 460 | 2.1% |
| FY2021 | 19,454 | -70 | -0.4% |
| FY2022 | 26,237 | -285 | -1.1% |
| FY2023 | 41,673 | 1,362 | 3.3% |
| FY2024 | 45,791 | 2,696 | 5.9% |
| FY2025 | 48,535 | 3,383 | 7.0% |
| FY2026 | 56,362 | 3,721 | 6.6% |
04How Ashok Leyland gets valued — and why
Estimate withheld — model and market disagree too farOur model and the market disagree so far apart on this company that the model is the more likely one to be wrong. Rather than publish a number we cannot stand behind, we show the workings and say so.
05What decides Ashok Leyland's value
Truck cycle
Freight demand and infrastructure spending drive sales.
Market share
Gains against Tata Motors lift volumes.
Margins
Pricing discipline has improved profitability.
Electric buses
Switch Mobility is a long-term bet.
06What could go wrong
- Cyclical downturns. Truck sales can fall sharply.
- EV losses. Switch Mobility needs investment.
- Competition. Tata Motors and others fight for share.
07What the full Ashok Leyland valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete Ashok Leyland valuation
- ✓The full model workings — and exactly where the model and the market part ways
- ✓Every assumption — growth, returns and cost of capital, with sources
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Tata Motors, Eicher Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about Ashok Leyland
Who owns Ashok Leyland?
The Hinduja group is the controlling shareholder.
Why are Ashok Leyland's profits cyclical?
Truck demand follows freight volumes, infrastructure spending and interest rates.
What is Switch Mobility?
Ashok Leyland's electric bus and light-commercial-vehicle business.
Is Ashok Leyland overvalued?
At ₹169 the market is pricing in roughly 0% sustained growth, against the ~14% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
What is the intrinsic value of Ashok Leyland?
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.
How much debt does Ashok Leyland carry?
Debt to equity stands at 3.38, against 2.79 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.