A valuation of Bajaj Finserv (BAJAJFINSV) built from its filed accounts — ten years of results, the method that fits this business, and what today's price already assumes.
We do not publish one number for Bajaj Finserv — and here is why.
Bajaj Finserv is really several different businesses under one roof, and they do not work the same way. Adding them together into a single “fair value” would produce a figure that describes none of them. So we value each part on its own terms instead of printing one number that looks tidy and means little.
Worked backwards from today's share price: the growth Bajaj Finserv must sustain to justify what it costs, against what its own record supports.
How to read this. The number on the left is what today’s share price quietly takes for granted about the future. The number on the right is what Bajaj Finserv has actually managed over the last ten years. When the two are far apart, that gap is the bet you would be taking.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit as filed, in ₹ crore.
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2017 | 24,507 | 3,450 | 14.1% |
| Mar 2018 | 32,862 | 4,176 | 12.7% |
| Mar 2019 | 42,605 | 5,374 | 12.6% |
| Mar 2020 | 54,351 | 5,994 | 11.0% |
| Mar 2021 | 60,592 | 7,367 | 12.2% |
| Mar 2022 | 68,406 | 8,314 | 12.2% |
| Mar 2023 | 82,072 | 12,210 | 14.9% |
| Mar 2024 | 1,10,382 | 15,595 | 14.1% |
| Mar 2025 | 1,32,944 | 17,558 | 13.2% |
| Mar 2026 | 1,50,530 | 19,669 | 13.1% |
This is a group of businesses with different economics. A single discounted cash flow across all of them averages them into something that describes none of them, so our engine withholds a single blended fair value rather than publishing a number it cannot defend. The parts are valued separately instead.
Estimate withheld — the engine says so itselfThe same valuation, run side by side.
Bajaj Finserv vs BAJFINANCEThe lending subsidiary that carries most of the value here.→Bajaj Finserv vs HDFC BankA holding company against a bank, on the same excess-return lens.→Bajaj Finserv vs LICIBoth hold insurance businesses valued on embedded value.→At ₹2,089 the market is pricing in roughly 3% sustained growth, against the ~20% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.
A price-to-earnings of 32.6 and price-to-book of 4.29 sit against a return on equity of 13.2%. Whether that multiple is deserved depends on how durable the return is — which is exactly what the valuation tests.
Revenue went from ₹0.25 lakh crore to ₹1.51 lakh crore over the period shown, while return on equity moved from 15.3% to 14.6%. Growing scale on a rising return is a very different proposition from growing scale on a falling one.
The dividend yield is 0.07%, so effectively the entire return has to come from the share price.
Debt to equity stands at 5.52, against 2.99 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.
From published financial statements. The method is chosen to fit the business — a bank on excess return, a regulated utility on its rate base, a conglomerate by its parts — and every assumption is shown with its source. When the numbers do not support an estimate, no estimate is published. This is an educational research tool: it reports what the model computed and does not recommend buying or selling anything.
A cost of capital of 8.46%, growth drawn from the company's own record rather than from guidance, and the valuation method that fits the business. All of them are listed in the report, with how much each one moves the answer.