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We do not publish one number for Bharat Dynamics — and here is why.
On today's figures the market pays roughly 8.6 times what our model says Bharat Dynamics is worth. On a company this widely followed, a gap that large almost always means our model is missing something rather than that thousands of investors are wrong. So we show the workings and say plainly that we cannot stand behind a single figure here.
- How it is valued: no single figure is published here — our model and the market disagree too far.
- What the price assumes: 35% growth, against 0% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2018 and FY2026, Bharat Dynamics' revenue went from ₹4,588 crore to ₹2,442 crore — it shrank by about 8% a year over 8 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Defence orders. Main risk: Lumpy revenue.
01Missiles from Hyderabad
Bharat Dynamics (BDL), majority-owned by the Government of India and based in Hyderabad, makes surface-to-air missiles such as Akash, the Astra air-to-air missile, anti-tank guided missiles and torpedoes.
It works closely with DRDO, which designs many of the systems it manufactures, and is pursuing exports.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for Bharat Dynamics, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03Bharat Dynamics' record, in plain numbers
Between FY2018 and FY2026, Bharat Dynamics' revenue went from ₹4,588 crore to ₹2,442 crore — it shrank by about 8% a year over 8 years. Net profit fell from ₹528 crore to ₹420 crore, about 3% a year — faster than revenue, so margins widened. In FY2026 it kept 17.2% of revenue as net profit — against a low of 11.5% in FY2018 and a high of 25.9% in FY2024. Revenue slipped 27.0% in the latest year, well behind its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 4,588 | 528 | 11.5% |
| FY2019 | 3,069 | 423 | 13.8% |
| FY2020 | 3,095 | 535 | 17.3% |
| FY2021 | 1,914 | 258 | 13.5% |
| FY2022 | 2,817 | 500 | 17.7% |
| FY2023 | 2,489 | 352 | 14.1% |
| FY2024 | 2,369 | 613 | 25.9% |
| FY2025 | 3,345 | 550 | 16.4% |
| FY2026 | 2,442 | 420 | 17.2% |
04How Bharat Dynamics gets valued — and why
Estimate withheld — model and market disagree too farOur model and the market disagree so far apart on this company that the model is the more likely one to be wrong. Rather than publish a number we cannot stand behind, we show the workings and say so.
05What decides Bharat Dynamics' value
Defence orders
Missile contracts set future revenue.
Deliveries
Execution timing drives each year's results.
Exports
Overseas orders could add growth.
Margins
Mix of products affects profitability.
06What could go wrong
- Lumpy revenue. Delivery timing makes results uneven.
- One customer. Revenue depends on India's defence budget.
- The premium. The price assumes strong order growth.
07What the full Bharat Dynamics valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete Bharat Dynamics valuation
- ✓The full model workings — and exactly where the model and the market part ways
- ✓Every assumption — growth, returns and cost of capital, with sources
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against HAL, BEL and Mazagon Dock
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about Bharat Dynamics
What does Bharat Dynamics make?
Missiles such as Akash and Astra, anti-tank missiles and torpedoes.
Who designs BDL's missiles?
Many are designed by DRDO and manufactured by BDL.
Why is BDL's revenue lumpy?
It depends on when missile batches are delivered.
Is Bharat Dynamics overvalued?
At ₹1,030 the market is pricing in roughly 35% sustained growth, against the ~0% its own record supports. That is more than it has delivered, so the price is justified only if the business can hold a rate it has not previously sustained.
What is the intrinsic value of Bharat Dynamics?
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.
How much debt does Bharat Dynamics carry?
Debt to equity stands at 0.00, against 0.00 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.