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We do not publish one number for Bharat Forge — and here is why.
On today's figures the market pays roughly 3.1 times what our model says Bharat Forge is worth. On a company this widely followed, a gap that large almost always means our model is missing something rather than that thousands of investors are wrong. So we show the workings and say plainly that we cannot stand behind a single figure here.
- How it is valued: no single figure is published here — our model and the market disagree too far.
- What the price assumes: 35% growth, against 15% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2018 and FY2026, Bharat Forge's revenue went from ₹8,415 crore to ₹16,812 crore — it compounded at about 9% a year over 8 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Global truck cycle. Main risk: Export slowdowns.
01The Kalyani group's engineering flagship
Bharat Forge, the Pune-based flagship of the Kalyani group led by Baba Kalyani, makes forged and machined components — crankshafts, axle beams and more — for truck, car and industrial customers in India, the US and Europe.
Through Kalyani Strategic Systems it makes artillery guns, armoured vehicles and ammunition, and it is growing an aerospace components business.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for Bharat Forge, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03Bharat Forge's record, in plain numbers
Between FY2018 and FY2026, Bharat Forge's revenue went from ₹8,415 crore to ₹16,812 crore — it compounded at about 9% a year over 8 years. It reported a net loss in FY2021, and closed the period with net profit of ₹1,089 crore. In FY2026 it kept 6.5% of revenue as net profit — against a low of -2.0% in FY2021 and a high of 10.3% in FY2022. The latest year added 11.2% to revenue, close to its own long-run pace. FY2019 is missing from the filed series used here, so that year is left out rather than estimated.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 8,415 | 754 | 9.0% |
| FY2020 | 8,056 | 349 | 4.3% |
| FY2021 | 6,336 | -127 | -2.0% |
| FY2022 | 10,461 | 1,077 | 10.3% |
| FY2023 | 12,910 | 508 | 3.9% |
| FY2024 | 15,682 | 910 | 5.8% |
| FY2025 | 15,123 | 913 | 6.0% |
| FY2026 | 16,812 | 1,089 | 6.5% |
04How Bharat Forge gets valued — and why
Estimate withheld — model and market disagree too farOur model and the market disagree so far apart on this company that the model is the more likely one to be wrong. Rather than publish a number we cannot stand behind, we show the workings and say so.
05What decides Bharat Forge's value
Global truck cycle
North American and European truck demand drives exports.
Defence orders
Artillery and ammunition contracts add growth.
Aerospace
Engine and structural parts for global aircraft makers.
Overseas subsidiaries
European operations have weighed on margins.
06What could go wrong
- Export slowdowns. Weak truck demand abroad hits volumes.
- Defence timing. Large contracts can be delayed.
- The premium. The price assumes defence growth delivers.
07What the full Bharat Forge valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete Bharat Forge valuation
- ✓The full model workings — and exactly where the model and the market part ways
- ✓Every assumption — growth, returns and cost of capital, with sources
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against HAL, Bosch India and other engineering companies
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about Bharat Forge
What does Bharat Forge make?
Forged components for vehicles and industry, plus artillery, defence systems and aerospace parts.
What is Kalyani Strategic Systems?
Bharat Forge's defence subsidiary.
Why does the global truck cycle matter?
Truck parts for North America and Europe are a large share of exports.
Is Bharat Forge overvalued?
At ₹1,750 the market is pricing in roughly 35% sustained growth, against the ~15% its own record supports. That is more than it has delivered, so the price is justified only if the business can hold a rate it has not previously sustained.
What is the intrinsic value of Bharat Forge?
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.
How much debt does Bharat Forge carry?
Debt to equity stands at 0.19, down from 0.26 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.