Hindustan Petroleum Corporation valuation — what today's price assumes
Ten years of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HINDPETRO)'s results, the ratios that matter for this business, and the growth and returns today's share price already implies — all built from its filed accounts.
We do not publish one number for Hindustan Petroleum Corporation — and here is why.
On today's figures our model puts Hindustan Petroleum Corporation at roughly 4.5 times what the market pays for it. On a company this widely followed, a gap that large almost always means our model is missing something rather than that thousands of investors are wrong. So we show the workings and say plainly that we cannot stand behind a single figure here.
What the market is assuming
Worked backwards from today's share price: the growth today’s price implies for Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, against what the model assumes.
How to read this. The number on the left is the growth today’s share price quietly takes for granted. The number on the right is what the model actually assumes. When the two are far apart, that gap is the bet you would be taking.
Ten years, in charts
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
The numbers behind them
Revenue and net profit as filed, in ₹ crore.
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 2,43,227 | 6,357 | 2.6% |
| FY2020 | 2,87,742 | 2,639 | 0.9% |
| FY2021 | 2,70,578 | 10,663 | 3.9% |
| FY2022 | 3,74,127 | 7,294 | 1.9% |
| FY2023 | 4,66,499 | -6,980 | -1.5% |
| FY2024 | 4,61,969 | 16,015 | 3.5% |
| FY2025 | 4,66,724 | 6,736 | 1.4% |
| FY2026 | 4,78,866 | 18,047 | 3.8% |
How this company gets valued — and why
Our model and the market disagree so far apart on this company that the model is the more likely one to be wrong. Rather than publish a number we cannot stand behind, we show the workings and say so.
Estimate withheld — model and market disagree too farUnderstand this method
- Margin of Safety: The Idea That Protects Your Capital
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- How to Calculate the Fair Value of a Share
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The complete valuation
Unlock the complete valuation report
- ✓Fair value per share — with the full working behind it
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and what moves between them
- ✓Every assumption — growth, margins, cost of capital, with sources
- ✓Peer comparison — how rivals are priced on the same measures
- ✓Downloadable PDF report — the full write-up, yours to keep
Frequently asked
Is Hindustan Petroleum Corporation overvalued?
At ₹345 the market is pricing in roughly 0% sustained growth, against the ~4% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
What is the intrinsic value of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation?
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.
Is Hindustan Petroleum Corporation a good long-term investment?
Revenue went from ₹2.43 lakh crore to ₹4.79 lakh crore over the period shown, while return on equity moved from 0.0% to 32.1%. Growing scale on a rising return is a very different proposition from growing scale on a falling one.
How much debt does Hindustan Petroleum Corporation carry?
Debt to equity stands at 0.56, down from 1.56 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.
How does FairStocks calculate fair value?
From published financial statements. The method is chosen to fit the business — a bank on excess return, a regulated utility on its rate base, a conglomerate by its parts — and every assumption is shown with its source. When the numbers do not support an estimate, no estimate is published. This is an educational research tool: it reports what the model computed and does not recommend buying or selling anything.
What assumptions are used to value Hindustan Petroleum Corporation?
A cost of capital of 9.57%, growth drawn from the company's own record rather than from guidance, and the valuation method that fits the business. All of them are listed in the report, with how much each one moves the answer.