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We do not publish one number for ICICI Lombard — and here is why.
On today's figures the market pays roughly 4.2 times what our model says ICICI Lombard is worth. On a company this widely followed, a gap that large almost always means our model is missing something rather than that thousands of investors are wrong. So we show the workings and say plainly that we cannot stand behind a single figure here.
- How it is valued: no single figure is published here — our model and the market disagree too far.
- What the price assumes: 35.0% return on equity, against 40.0% the model takes from its own record.
- Biggest swing factor: Combined ratio. Main risk: Claims spikes.
01Insurance for cars, health and businesses
ICICI Lombard General Insurance, part of the ICICI group, is India's largest private general insurer. It sells motor, health, travel, home and commercial insurance through agents, banks, brokers and its own digital channels. It merged with Bharti AXA General Insurance in 2021.
A general insurer earns in two ways: underwriting — collecting more in premiums than it pays in claims and costs — and investing the premiums it holds before claims are paid.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the return on equity that price implies for ICICI Lombard, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03ICICI Lombard's record, in plain numbers
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 22,937 | 2,508 | 10.9% |
| FY2026 | 25,895 | 2,772 | 10.7% |
04How ICICI Lombard gets valued — and why
Estimate withheld — model and market disagree too farOur model and the market disagree so far apart on this company that the model is the more likely one to be wrong. Rather than publish a number we cannot stand behind, we show the workings and say so.
05What decides ICICI Lombard's value
Combined ratio
Claims and costs as a share of premiums; below 100% means underwriting profit.
Premium growth
Health and motor insurance demand is growing with the economy.
Investment income
Returns on the premium float add a large share of profit.
Mix
Health and commercial lines earn differently from motor.
06What could go wrong
- Claims spikes. Natural disasters or health shocks raise claims.
- Price competition. Rivals can underprice to win share.
- Regulation. Rules on motor pricing and commissions affect margins.
07What the full ICICI Lombard valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete ICICI Lombard valuation
- ✓The full model workings — and exactly where the model and the market part ways
- ✓Every assumption — growth, returns and cost of capital, with sources
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against ICICI Prudential Life, HDFC Life and ICICI Bank
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Compare ICICI Lombard with peers
The same valuation, run side by side.
ICICI Lombard vs ICICI Prudential LifeGeneral insurance against life, inside the same group.→ICICI Lombard vs HDFC LifeUnderwriting motor and health against selling life cover.→ICICI Lombard vs ICICI BankThe parent bank, on the same excess-return lens.→09Questions people ask about ICICI Lombard
How does ICICI Lombard make money?
From underwriting profit and from investment income on the premiums it holds.
What is a combined ratio?
Claims plus expenses as a percentage of premiums. Below 100% means the insurer makes a profit on underwriting alone.
ICICI Lombard or ICICI Prudential Life — what is the difference?
One is a general insurer, the other a life insurer, in the same group. The comparison page sets them side by side.
Is ICICI Lombard overvalued?
At ₹1,691 the market is pricing in roughly 35.0% sustained ROE, against the ~40.0% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
What is the intrinsic value of ICICI Lombard?
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.