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We do not publish one number for Lloyds Metals — and here is why.
On today's figures our model puts Lloyds Metals at roughly 2.9 times what the market pays for it. On a company this widely followed, a gap that large almost always means our model is missing something rather than that thousands of investors are wrong. So we show the workings and say plainly that we cannot stand behind a single figure here.
- How it is valued: no single figure is published here — our model and the market disagree too far.
- What the price assumes: 14% growth, against 35% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2024 and FY2026, Lloyds Metals' revenue went from ₹6,522 crore to ₹17,113 crore — it compounded at about 62% a year over 2 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Ore volumes. Main risk: Execution.
01Iron ore from Maharashtra
Lloyds Metals and Energy mines iron ore at Surjagarh in Gadchiroli, Maharashtra, and makes sponge iron and power at Ghugus in Chandrapur. Output from the mine has grown rapidly, transforming revenue and profit.
It is investing in pellet plants, a slurry pipeline and an integrated steel plant to turn more of its ore into higher-value products.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for Lloyds Metals, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03Lloyds Metals' record, in plain numbers
Between FY2024 and FY2026, Lloyds Metals' revenue went from ₹6,522 crore to ₹17,113 crore — it compounded at about 62% a year over 2 years. Net profit grew from ₹1,243 crore to ₹3,829 crore, about 76% a year — faster than revenue, so margins widened. Net margin has been unusually stable, between 19.1% and 22.4% in every year shown. The latest year added 154.6% to revenue, well ahead of its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 6,522 | 1,243 | 19.1% |
| FY2025 | 6,721 | 1,450 | 21.6% |
| FY2026 | 17,113 | 3,829 | 22.4% |
04How Lloyds Metals gets valued — and why
Estimate withheld — model and market disagree too farOur model and the market disagree so far apart on this company that the model is the more likely one to be wrong. Rather than publish a number we cannot stand behind, we show the workings and say so.
05What decides Lloyds Metals' value
Ore volumes
Mine output drives revenue.
Iron-ore prices
Domestic ore prices swing profit.
Steel plant
Moving into steel adds value if executed well.
Logistics
A slurry pipeline would cut transport costs.
06What could go wrong
- Execution. Large new plants can run late or over budget.
- Commodity prices. Weaker ore prices cut profit.
- Location. Operating in a remote, sensitive region brings challenges.
07What the full Lloyds Metals valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete Lloyds Metals valuation
- ✓Fair value per share — from a ten-year discounted cash flow, every step shown
- ✓The Workbench — change revenue growth, the discount rate or terminal growth and watch Lloyds Metals' value move
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against NMDC, JSW Steel and other metals companies
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about Lloyds Metals
Where is Lloyds Metals' mine?
At Surjagarh in Gadchiroli district, Maharashtra.
Why has Lloyds Metals grown so fast?
Iron-ore output from the Gadchiroli mine has risen sharply.
What is Lloyds Metals building?
Pellet plants, a slurry pipeline and an integrated steel plant.
Is Lloyds Metals overvalued?
At ₹1,786 the market is pricing in roughly 14% sustained growth, against the ~35% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
What is the intrinsic value of Lloyds Metals?
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.