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We do not publish one number for NMDC — and here is why.
On today's figures our model puts NMDC at roughly 4.3 times what the market pays for it. On a company this widely followed, a gap that large almost always means our model is missing something rather than that thousands of investors are wrong. So we show the workings and say plainly that we cannot stand behind a single figure here.
- How it is valued: no single figure is published here — our model and the market disagree too far.
- What the price assumes: 0% growth, against 18% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2018 and FY2026, NMDC's revenue went from ₹11,615 crore to ₹32,071 crore — it compounded at about 14% a year over 8 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Iron-ore prices. Main risk: Ore price falls.
01Iron ore from Bailadila
NMDC, majority-owned by the Government of India, is India's largest iron-ore producer, with mechanised mines at Bailadila in Chhattisgarh and Donimalai and Kumaraswamy in Karnataka.
It sells ore to steelmakers at prices it revises regularly. In 2022 it demerged its Nagarnar steel plant into a separate listed company, NMDC Steel.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for NMDC, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03NMDC's record, in plain numbers
Between FY2018 and FY2026, NMDC's revenue went from ₹11,615 crore to ₹32,071 crore — it compounded at about 14% a year over 8 years. Net profit grew from ₹3,806 crore to ₹7,450 crore, about 9% a year — slower than revenue, so margins narrowed. In FY2026 it kept 23.2% of revenue as net profit — its weakest year in the period. The latest year added 35.5% to revenue, well ahead of its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 11,615 | 3,806 | 32.8% |
| FY2019 | 12,153 | 4,618 | 38.0% |
| FY2020 | 11,699 | 3,573 | 30.5% |
| FY2021 | 15,370 | 6,277 | 40.8% |
| FY2022 | 25,882 | 9,379 | 36.2% |
| FY2023 | 17,667 | 5,601 | 31.7% |
| FY2024 | 21,308 | 5,575 | 26.2% |
| FY2025 | 23,668 | 6,693 | 28.3% |
| FY2026 | 32,071 | 7,450 | 23.2% |
04How NMDC gets valued — and why
Estimate withheld — model and market disagree too farOur model and the market disagree so far apart on this company that the model is the more likely one to be wrong. Rather than publish a number we cannot stand behind, we show the workings and say so.
05What decides NMDC's value
Iron-ore prices
NMDC's monthly prices drive profit.
Volumes
Expanding output toward ambitious targets.
Steel demand
Indian steel growth drives ore demand.
Dividends
High payouts to its government owner.
06What could go wrong
- Ore price falls. Weak steel markets cut prices.
- Royalties and levies. State charges raise costs.
- Logistics. Rail capacity limits shipments.
07What the full NMDC valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete NMDC valuation
- ✓The full model workings — and exactly where the model and the market part ways
- ✓Every assumption — growth, returns and cost of capital, with sources
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Coal India, Lloyds Metals and SAIL
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about NMDC
Where are NMDC's mines?
Bailadila in Chhattisgarh and Donimalai and Kumaraswamy in Karnataka.
What is NMDC Steel?
The Nagarnar steel plant, demerged from NMDC in 2022.
How does NMDC set prices?
It revises iron-ore prices regularly based on market conditions.
Is NMDC overvalued?
At ₹70 the market is pricing in roughly 0% sustained growth, against the ~18% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
What is the intrinsic value of NMDC?
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.
How much debt does NMDC carry?
Debt to equity stands at 0.00, against 0.00 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.