On this page ▾
We do not publish one number for Thermax — and here is why.
On today's figures the market pays roughly 3.1 times what our model says Thermax is worth. On a company this widely followed, a gap that large almost always means our model is missing something rather than that thousands of investors are wrong. So we show the workings and say plainly that we cannot stand behind a single figure here.
- How it is valued: no single figure is published here — our model and the market disagree too far.
- What the price assumes: 35% growth, against 13% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2018 and FY2026, Thermax's revenue went from ₹4,486 crore to ₹10,694 crore — it compounded at about 11% a year over 8 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Industrial capex. Main risk: Project losses.
01A Pune engineering company
Thermax, based in Pune and led by the Aga family, makes industrial boilers and heaters, absorption chillers, air-pollution control and water-treatment systems, and specialty chemicals.
Through Thermax Onsite Energy Solutions it builds and runs renewable power for industrial customers, and it is developing biofuels and green-hydrogen equipment.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for Thermax, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03Thermax's record, in plain numbers
Between FY2018 and FY2026, Thermax's revenue went from ₹4,486 crore to ₹10,694 crore — it compounded at about 11% a year over 8 years. Net profit grew from ₹231 crore to ₹720 crore, about 15% a year — faster than revenue, so margins widened. In FY2026 it kept 6.7% of revenue as net profit — against a low of 3.7% in FY2020 and a high of 6.9% in FY2024. The latest year added 2.9% to revenue, well behind its own long-run pace. FY2019 is missing from the filed series used here, so that year is left out rather than estimated.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 4,486 | 231 | 5.2% |
| FY2020 | 5,731 | 212 | 3.7% |
| FY2021 | 4,791 | 207 | 4.3% |
| FY2022 | 6,128 | 312 | 5.1% |
| FY2023 | 8,090 | 451 | 5.6% |
| FY2024 | 9,323 | 643 | 6.9% |
| FY2025 | 10,389 | 627 | 6.0% |
| FY2026 | 10,694 | 720 | 6.7% |
04How Thermax gets valued — and why
Estimate withheld — model and market disagree too farOur model and the market disagree so far apart on this company that the model is the more likely one to be wrong. Rather than publish a number we cannot stand behind, we show the workings and say so.
05What decides Thermax's value
Industrial capex
New factories need boilers and utilities.
Green energy
Renewables for industry and new fuels.
Chemicals
Specialty chemicals add margin.
Execution
Large projects need tight cost control.
06What could go wrong
- Project losses. Fixed-price contracts can overrun.
- Capex slowdowns. Fewer factory projects cut orders.
- The premium. The price assumes the green businesses succeed.
07What the full Thermax valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete Thermax valuation
- ✓The full model workings — and exactly where the model and the market part ways
- ✓Every assumption — growth, returns and cost of capital, with sources
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Cummins India, BHEL and other capital-goods makers
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about Thermax
What does Thermax make?
Industrial boilers, heaters, chillers, pollution-control and water-treatment systems.
What is Thermax Onsite Energy Solutions?
Its business building renewable power for industrial customers.
Who runs Thermax?
The Aga family.
Is Thermax overvalued?
At ₹2,776 the market is pricing in roughly 35% sustained growth, against the ~13% its own record supports. That is more than it has delivered, so the price is justified only if the business can hold a rate it has not previously sustained.
What is the intrinsic value of Thermax?
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.
How much debt does Thermax carry?
Debt to equity stands at 0.29, against 0.11 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.