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The market expects Cochin Shipyard to do better than it ever has.
At today’s share price, buyers are assuming Cochin Shipyard grows about 27% a year, forever. Over the last ten years it actually grew about 18% a year. So the share price only makes sense if the business improves on its own track record. If it simply carries on as before, buyers today have paid for something they will not get.
- How it is valued: Discounted cash flow.
- What the price assumes: 27% growth, against 18% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2018 and FY2026, Cochin Shipyard's revenue went from ₹2,355 crore to ₹5,022 crore — it compounded at about 10% a year over 8 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Naval orders. Main risk: Order timing.
01India's largest shipyard
Cochin Shipyard, majority-owned by the Government of India and based in Kochi, is one of India's largest shipbuilding and repair yards. It built INS Vikrant, commissioned in 2022.
It builds naval vessels, commercial ships and hybrid and electric vessels for European customers, and runs ship-repair facilities, including one in Mumbai.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for Cochin Shipyard, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03Cochin Shipyard's record, in plain numbers
Between FY2018 and FY2026, Cochin Shipyard's revenue went from ₹2,355 crore to ₹5,022 crore — it compounded at about 10% a year over 8 years. Net profit grew from ₹397 crore to ₹717 crore, about 8% a year — slower than revenue, so margins narrowed. In FY2026 it kept 14.3% of revenue as net profit — against a low of 12.9% in FY2023 and a high of 21.6% in FY2021. The latest year added 4.2% to revenue, well behind its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 2,355 | 397 | 16.8% |
| FY2019 | 2,962 | 478 | 16.1% |
| FY2020 | 3,422 | 632 | 18.5% |
| FY2021 | 2,819 | 609 | 21.6% |
| FY2022 | 3,191 | 564 | 17.7% |
| FY2023 | 2,365 | 305 | 12.9% |
| FY2024 | 3,830 | 783 | 20.4% |
| FY2025 | 4,820 | 827 | 17.2% |
| FY2026 | 5,022 | 717 | 14.3% |
04How Cochin Shipyard gets valued — and why
Discounted cash flowThis business is valued on the cash it is expected to generate, discounted back at its cost of capital — with growth taken from its own ten-year record rather than from guidance.
05What decides Cochin Shipyard's value
Naval orders
Warship programmes set future revenue.
Commercial and export orders
European green vessels diversify the book.
Ship repair
Steady, high-margin work.
New capacity
A new dry dock adds scale.
06What could go wrong
- Order timing. Large orders can be delayed.
- Execution. Complex ships risk cost overruns.
- The valuation. A high price assumes strong order growth.
07What the full Cochin Shipyard valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete Cochin Shipyard valuation
- ✓Fair value per share — from a ten-year discounted cash flow, every step shown
- ✓The Workbench — change revenue growth, the discount rate or terminal growth and watch Cochin Shipyard's value move
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Mazagon Dock, HAL and BEL
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about Cochin Shipyard
What has Cochin Shipyard built?
INS Vikrant, India's first home-built aircraft carrier, plus warships and commercial vessels.
Who owns Cochin Shipyard?
The Government of India holds the majority.
Does Cochin Shipyard repair ships?
Yes, including at a facility in Mumbai.
Is Cochin Shipyard overvalued?
At ₹1,290 the market is pricing in roughly 27% sustained growth, against the ~18% its own record supports. That is more than it has delivered, so the price is justified only if the business can hold a rate it has not previously sustained.
What is the intrinsic value of Cochin Shipyard?
It is computed from the filed financial statements using the method that fits this business (discounted cash flow), with every assumption shown alongside the result. The per-share figure and the full working are in the report.
How much debt does Cochin Shipyard carry?
Debt to equity stands at 0.00, down from 0.01 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.