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The market expects much less from GMR Airports than it has delivered before.
At today’s share price, buyers are assuming GMR Airports grows about 26% a year, forever. Over the last ten years it actually grew about 31% a year. That is a big step down from its own record. Either the market can see a problem that the published accounts do not show yet, or it is expecting a slowdown that has not happened.
- How it is valued: Discounted cash flow.
- What the price assumes: 26% growth, against 31% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2019 and FY2026, GMR Airports' revenue went from ₹7,565 crore to ₹14,807 crore — it compounded at about 10% a year over 7 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Passenger growth. Main risk: Regulation.
01India's largest private airport operator
GMR Airports, controlled by the GMR group, operates Indira Gandhi International Airport in Delhi, Rajiv Gandhi International Airport in Hyderabad and Manohar International Airport at Mopa in Goa, along with stakes in airports abroad. France's Groupe ADP is a major shareholder.
Airports earn regulated charges on passengers and aircraft, plus higher-margin income from shops, restaurants, parking and property. Large expansions were funded with debt, and interest costs kept the group loss-making for years.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for GMR Airports, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03GMR Airports' record, in plain numbers
Between FY2019 and FY2026, GMR Airports' revenue went from ₹7,565 crore to ₹14,807 crore — it compounded at about 10% a year over 7 years. It reported a net loss in FY2019, FY2020, FY2021, FY2022, FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025, and closed the period with net profit of ₹472 crore. In FY2026 it kept 3.2% of revenue as net profit — its best year in the period. The latest year added 42.2% to revenue, well ahead of its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 7,565 | -3,356 | -44.4% |
| FY2020 | 8,556 | -2,202 | -25.7% |
| FY2021 | 6,229 | -3,428 | -55.0% |
| FY2022 | 4,601 | -1,131 | -24.6% |
| FY2023 | 6,693 | -840 | -12.5% |
| FY2024 | 8,755 | -828 | -9.5% |
| FY2025 | 10,414 | -817 | -7.8% |
| FY2026 | 14,807 | 472 | 3.2% |
04How GMR Airports gets valued — and why
Discounted cash flowThis business is valued on the cash it is expected to generate, discounted back at its cost of capital — with growth taken from its own ten-year record rather than from guidance.
05What decides GMR Airports' value
Passenger growth
Traffic drives both aeronautical and retail income.
Tariff decisions
Regulated charges set aeronautical revenue.
Non-aero income
Retail, duty-free and property earn high margins.
Debt
Lower interest costs lift profit sharply.
06What could go wrong
- Regulation. Tariff orders can disappoint.
- Leverage. Heavy debt magnifies any setback.
- Travel shocks. Pandemics or crises empty airports.
07What the full GMR Airports valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete GMR Airports valuation
- ✓Fair value per share — from a ten-year discounted cash flow, every step shown
- ✓The Workbench — change revenue growth, the discount rate or terminal growth and watch GMR Airports' value move
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Adani Enterprises (airports) and IndiGo
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about GMR Airports
Which airports does GMR run?
Delhi, Hyderabad and Goa's Mopa airport in India, plus stakes in airports abroad.
Why did GMR Airports make losses?
Interest on expansion debt and the pandemic's hit to traffic.
Who owns GMR Airports?
The GMR group, with France's Groupe ADP as a major shareholder.
Is GMR Airports overvalued?
At ₹99 the market is pricing in roughly 26% sustained growth, against the ~31% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
What is the intrinsic value of GMR Airports?
It is computed from the filed financial statements using the method that fits this business (discounted cash flow), with every assumption shown alongside the result. The per-share figure and the full working are in the report.