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The market expects much less from IndiGo than it has delivered before.
At today’s share price, buyers are assuming IndiGo grows about 17% a year, forever. Over the last ten years it actually grew about 24% a year. That is a big step down from its own record. Either the market can see a problem that the published accounts do not show yet, or it is expecting a slowdown that has not happened.
- How it is valued: Discounted cash flow.
- What the price assumes: 17% growth, against 24% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2018 and FY2026, IndiGo's revenue went from ₹23,021 crore to ₹84,962 crore — it compounded at about 18% a year over 8 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Passenger growth. Main risk: Fuel prices.
01A low-cost airline that took over the market
InterGlobe Aviation runs IndiGo, India's largest airline by far, with a majority share of domestic passengers. Founded by Rahul Bhatia and Rakesh Gangwal, it began flying in 2006 with a simple low-cost model: one aircraft family, quick turnarounds and high utilisation.
It is now expanding internationally, adding wide-body aircraft and long-haul routes. Many of its aircraft are leased, and those lease payments are largely in dollars.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for IndiGo, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03IndiGo's record, in plain numbers
Between FY2018 and FY2026, IndiGo's revenue went from ₹23,021 crore to ₹84,962 crore — it compounded at about 18% a year over 8 years. It reported a net loss in FY2020, FY2021, FY2022, FY2023 and FY2026. In FY2026 it lost the equivalent of 2.8% of revenue — against a low of -39.7% in FY2021 and a high of 11.9% in FY2024. The latest year added 5.1% to revenue, well behind its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 23,021 | 2,242 | 9.7% |
| FY2019 | 28,497 | 157 | 0.6% |
| FY2020 | 35,756 | -234 | -0.7% |
| FY2021 | 14,641 | -5,806 | -39.7% |
| FY2022 | 25,931 | -6,162 | -23.8% |
| FY2023 | 54,446 | -306 | -0.6% |
| FY2024 | 68,904 | 8,172 | 11.9% |
| FY2025 | 80,803 | 7,258 | 9.0% |
| FY2026 | 84,962 | -2,394 | -2.8% |
04How IndiGo gets valued — and why
Discounted cash flowThis business is valued on the cash it is expected to generate, discounted back at its cost of capital — with growth taken from its own ten-year record rather than from guidance.
05What decides IndiGo's value
Passenger growth
India's air travel is growing fast from a low base.
Yields and fuel
Fares minus fuel costs drive profit.
Market share
Its scale gives cost and network advantages.
International expansion
Long-haul routes could add growth.
06What could go wrong
- Fuel prices. Jet fuel is the biggest cost.
- Currency. A weaker rupee raises dollar costs and lease liabilities.
- Operations. Engine problems and crew rules have grounded aircraft and disrupted flights.
07What the full IndiGo valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete IndiGo valuation
- ✓Fair value per share — from a ten-year discounted cash flow, every step shown
- ✓The Workbench — change revenue growth, the discount rate or terminal growth and watch IndiGo's value move
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Indian Hotels and Maruti Suzuki
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Compare IndiGo with peers
The same valuation, run side by side.
IndiGo vs Indian HotelsBoth live on discretionary travel — one flies people, the other houses them.→IndiGo vs Maruti SuzukiTwo big-ticket discretionary purchases on the same income cycle.→09Questions people ask about IndiGo
Why does IndiGo report losses in some years?
Fuel prices, currency movements on dollar leases and events like the pandemic swing reported profit.
How big is IndiGo in India?
It carries a majority of India's domestic air passengers.
IndiGo or Indian Hotels — which is better value?
Two travel businesses, compared side by side on their own page.
Is IndiGo overvalued?
At ₹5,587 the market is pricing in roughly 17% sustained growth, against the ~24% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
What is the intrinsic value of IndiGo?
It is computed from the filed financial statements using the method that fits this business (discounted cash flow), with every assumption shown alongside the result. The per-share figure and the full working are in the report.
How much debt does IndiGo carry?
Debt to equity stands at 0.00, against 0.00 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.