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We do not publish one number for Lupin — and here is why.
On today's figures our model puts Lupin at roughly 3.4 times what the market pays for it. On a company this widely followed, a gap that large almost always means our model is missing something rather than that thousands of investors are wrong. So we show the workings and say plainly that we cannot stand behind a single figure here.
- How it is valued: no single figure is published here — our model and the market disagree too far.
- What the price assumes: 0% growth, against 17% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2018 and FY2026, Lupin's revenue went from ₹15,560 crore to ₹27,958 crore — it compounded at about 8% a year over 8 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Complex US generics. Main risk: FDA problems.
01A Mumbai drugmaker rebuilt
Lupin was founded in 1968 by Desh Bandhu Gupta and is based in Mumbai. It is one of India's largest generic drugmakers, with big businesses in the US and India and smaller ones across emerging markets.
After FDA warning letters and price erosion in the late 2010s, it shifted its US focus to harder-to-copy products such as inhalers. India branded medicines, especially for chronic conditions, provide a steadier base.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for Lupin, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03Lupin's record, in plain numbers
Between FY2018 and FY2026, Lupin's revenue went from ₹15,560 crore to ₹27,958 crore — it compounded at about 8% a year over 8 years. It reported a net loss in FY2020 and FY2022, and closed the period with net profit of ₹5,355 crore. In FY2026 it kept 19.2% of revenue as net profit — its best year in the period. The latest year added 23.1% to revenue, well ahead of its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 15,560 | 258 | 1.7% |
| FY2019 | 16,369 | 615 | 3.8% |
| FY2020 | 15,375 | -270 | -1.8% |
| FY2021 | 15,163 | 1,228 | 8.1% |
| FY2022 | 16,405 | -1,509 | -9.2% |
| FY2023 | 16,642 | 448 | 2.7% |
| FY2024 | 20,011 | 1,936 | 9.7% |
| FY2025 | 22,708 | 3,306 | 14.6% |
| FY2026 | 27,958 | 5,355 | 19.2% |
04How Lupin gets valued — and why
Estimate withheld — model and market disagree too farOur model and the market disagree so far apart on this company that the model is the more likely one to be wrong. Rather than publish a number we cannot stand behind, we show the workings and say so.
05What decides Lupin's value
Complex US generics
Inhalers and other hard-to-make products earn more.
India business
Chronic-therapy brands grow steadily.
Plant compliance
Clean FDA inspections keep US approvals flowing.
Margins
Holding recent margin gains is the key test.
06What could go wrong
- FDA problems. New warning letters would hit US sales.
- Price erosion. Competition cuts generic prices.
- Product concentration. A few US products drive much of the recent profit.
07What the full Lupin valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete Lupin valuation
- ✓The full model workings — and exactly where the model and the market part ways
- ✓Every assumption — growth, returns and cost of capital, with sources
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Sun Pharma, Cipla and Dr Reddy's
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Compare Lupin with peers
The same valuation, run side by side.
Lupin vs Sun PharmaUS generics against the largest Indian pharma.→Lupin vs CiplaThe closest peer on US-and-India mix.→Lupin vs Dr Reddy'sTwo heavily US-weighted generics books.→09Questions people ask about Lupin
Why did Lupin make losses?
Mainly one-time write-downs on products and assets, alongside US price erosion.
What drove Lupin's recovery?
New complex US generics, especially inhalers, and a stronger India business.
Lupin or Cipla — which is better value?
Two US-and-India generics makers, compared side by side on their own page.
Is Lupin overvalued?
At ₹1,980 the market is pricing in roughly 0% sustained growth, against the ~17% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
What is the intrinsic value of Lupin?
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.
How much debt does Lupin carry?
Debt to equity stands at 0.07, down from 0.10 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.