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The market expects much less from Maruti Suzuki than it has delivered before.
At today’s share price, buyers are assuming Maruti Suzuki grows about 2% a year, forever. Over the last ten years it actually grew about 19% a year. That is a big step down from its own record. Either the market can see a problem that the published accounts do not show yet, or it is expecting a slowdown that has not happened.
- How it is valued: Discounted cash flow.
- What the price assumes: 2% growth, against 19% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2019 and FY2026, Maruti Suzuki's revenue went from ₹86,068 crore to ₹1,83,316 crore — it compounded at about 11% a year over 7 years.
- Biggest swing factor: SUV share. Main risk: The EV transition.
01India's carmaker
Maruti Suzuki India is the country's largest carmaker and is majority-owned by Japan's Suzuki Motor Corporation. Its range runs from hatchbacks such as the Alto, Wagon R and Swift to SUVs such as the Brezza, Grand Vitara and Fronx, sold through India's largest dealer and service network.
Maruti develops cars with Suzuki and pays it a royalty on sales. It has added plant capacity in Haryana and pushed hard into exports, now a fast-growing part of the business, and it builds the e Vitara, its first electric SUV, in India.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for Maruti Suzuki, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03Maruti Suzuki's record, in plain numbers
Between FY2019 and FY2026, Maruti Suzuki's revenue went from ₹86,068 crore to ₹1,83,316 crore — it compounded at about 11% a year over 7 years. Net profit grew from ₹7,651 crore to ₹14,680 crore, about 10% a year — slower than revenue, so margins narrowed. In FY2026 it kept 8.0% of revenue as net profit — against a low of 4.4% in FY2022 and a high of 9.5% in FY2024. The latest year added 19.9% to revenue, well ahead of its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 86,068 | 7,651 | 8.9% |
| FY2020 | 75,660 | 5,678 | 7.5% |
| FY2021 | 70,372 | 4,389 | 6.2% |
| FY2022 | 88,330 | 3,880 | 4.4% |
| FY2023 | 1,17,571 | 8,211 | 7.0% |
| FY2024 | 1,41,858 | 13,488 | 9.5% |
| FY2025 | 1,52,913 | 14,500 | 9.5% |
| FY2026 | 1,83,316 | 14,680 | 8.0% |
04How Maruti Suzuki gets valued — and why
Discounted cash flowThis business is valued on the cash it is expected to generate, discounted back at its cost of capital — with growth taken from its own ten-year record rather than from guidance.
05What decides Maruti Suzuki's value
SUV share
Maruti was late to SUVs and lost share as the market shifted to them; its newer SUVs decide how much of that it wins back.
Small-car demand
The September 2025 GST cut on small cars lowered prices for Maruti's core buyers — a test of how much demand was held back by price.
Exports
Overseas sales add volume without depending on the Indian cycle.
Royalty and margins
The royalty paid to Suzuki and the cost of steel and components set how much of each sale reaches profit.
06What could go wrong
- The EV transition. Rivals moved into electric cars earlier; a fast shift could cost Maruti share.
- Competition. Tata, Mahindra and Hyundai are all fighting for the same SUV buyers.
- Commodity costs. Steel and precious-metal prices squeeze margins when they rise faster than car prices.
07What the full Maruti Suzuki valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete Maruti Suzuki valuation
- ✓Fair value per share — from a ten-year discounted cash flow, every step shown
- ✓The Workbench — change revenue growth, the discount rate or terminal growth and watch Maruti's value move
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, Hyundai and Bajaj Auto
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Compare Maruti Suzuki with peers
The same valuation, run side by side.
Maruti Suzuki vs Mahindra & MahindraPassenger cars against a broader utility-vehicle and tractor mix.→Maruti Suzuki vs Tata MotorsPassenger cars against India's largest truck and bus maker, which kept the Tata Motors name after the 2025 demerger.→Maruti Suzuki vs Hyundai Motor IndiaThe closest direct comparison on the same segment.→Maruti Suzuki vs Titan CompanyTwo discretionary purchases that rise and fall with the same income cycle.→Maruti Suzuki vs Bajaj AutoCars against two-wheelers, on the same household income cycle.→09Questions people ask about Maruti Suzuki
How does Suzuki's royalty affect Maruti's valuation?
Maruti pays Suzuki a royalty on sales for designs and technology. It is a cost before profit, so it is already in the cash flows the model uses — and changes to the rate move value between Suzuki and other shareholders.
Is Maruti Suzuki losing market share?
Its share fell as the market moved towards SUVs, where Maruti was late; newer SUV launches have recovered part of that. The growth rate the DCF uses already reflects its own record, gains and losses included.
Maruti or Mahindra — which is better value?
The two are compared side by side on their own page, on price, returns and what each share price assumes.
Is Maruti Suzuki overvalued?
At ₹12,854 the market is pricing in roughly 2% sustained growth, against the ~19% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
What is the intrinsic value of Maruti Suzuki?
It is computed from the filed financial statements using the method that fits this business (discounted cash flow), with every assumption shown alongside the result. The per-share figure and the full working are in the report.
How much debt does Maruti Suzuki carry?
Debt to equity stands at 0.00, against 0.00 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.