A valuation of Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI) built from its filed accounts — ten years of results, the method that fits this business, and what today's price already assumes.
The market expects Maruti Suzuki India to carry on much as it has.
At today’s share price, buyers are assuming Maruti Suzuki India grows about 16% a year, forever. Over the last ten years it actually grew about 19% a year. The two are close, so the share price does not need the business to improve or to stumble. It needs it to keep doing roughly what it already does.
Worked backwards from today's share price: the growth Maruti Suzuki India must sustain to justify what it costs, against what its own record supports.
How to read this. The number on the left is what today’s share price quietly takes for granted about the future. The number on the right is what Maruti Suzuki India has actually managed over the last ten years. When the two are far apart, that gap is the bet you would be taking.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit as filed, in ₹ crore.
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2017 | 68,085 | 7,511 | 11.0% |
| Mar 2018 | 79,809 | 7,881 | 9.9% |
| Mar 2019 | 86,068 | 7,651 | 8.9% |
| Mar 2020 | 75,660 | 5,678 | 7.5% |
| Mar 2021 | 70,372 | 4,389 | 6.2% |
| Mar 2022 | 88,330 | 3,880 | 4.4% |
| Mar 2023 | 1,17,571 | 8,211 | 7.0% |
| Mar 2024 | 1,41,858 | 13,488 | 9.5% |
| Mar 2025 | 1,52,913 | 14,500 | 9.5% |
| Mar 2026 | 1,83,316 | 14,680 | 8.0% |
This business is valued on the cash it is expected to generate, discounted back at its cost of capital — with growth taken from its own ten-year record rather than from guidance.
Discounted cash flowThe same valuation, run side by side.
Maruti Suzuki India vs Mahindra & MahindraPassenger cars against a broader utility-vehicle and tractor mix.→Maruti Suzuki India vs Tata MotorsDomestic passenger vehicles plus the JLR business.→Maruti Suzuki India vs Hyundai Motor IndiaThe closest direct comparison on the same segment.→At ₹14,190 the market is pricing in roughly 16% sustained growth, against the ~19% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
It is computed from the filed financial statements using the method that fits this business (discounted cash flow), with every assumption shown alongside the result. The per-share figure and the full working are in the report.
A price-to-earnings of 31.2 and price-to-book of 4.16 sit against a return on equity of 14.4%. Whether that multiple is deserved depends on how durable the return is — which is exactly what the valuation tests.
Revenue went from ₹0.68 lakh crore to ₹1.83 lakh crore over the period shown, while return on equity moved from 19.8% to 14.4%. Growing scale on a rising return is a very different proposition from growing scale on a falling one.
The dividend yield is 0.99%, so effectively the entire return has to come from the share price.
Debt to equity stands at 0.00, down from 0.01 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.
From published financial statements. The method is chosen to fit the business — a bank on excess return, a regulated utility on its rate base, a conglomerate by its parts — and every assumption is shown with its source. When the numbers do not support an estimate, no estimate is published. This is an educational research tool: it reports what the model computed and does not recommend buying or selling anything.
A cost of capital of 10.81%, growth drawn from the company's own record rather than from guidance, and the valuation method that fits the business. All of them are listed in the report, with how much each one moves the answer.