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We do not publish one number for Radico Khaitan — and here is why.
On today's figures the market pays roughly 4.9 times what our model says Radico Khaitan is worth. On a company this widely followed, a gap that large almost always means our model is missing something rather than that thousands of investors are wrong. So we show the workings and say plainly that we cannot stand behind a single figure here.
- How it is valued: no single figure is published here — our model and the market disagree too far.
- What the price assumes: 35% growth, against 16% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2018 and FY2026, Radico Khaitan's revenue went from ₹6,270 crore to ₹20,976 crore — it compounded at about 16% a year over 8 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Premiumisation. Main risk: State policy.
01One of India's oldest distillers
Radico Khaitan, based at Rampur in Uttar Pradesh, is one of India's largest spirits makers. Its brands include Magic Moments vodka, 8PM whisky, Rampur Indian single malt, Jaisalmer gin and newer premium labels.
It makes much of its own grain alcohol, giving it control over a key input, and has been shifting its sales mix toward higher-priced brands.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for Radico Khaitan, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03Radico Khaitan's record, in plain numbers
Between FY2018 and FY2026, Radico Khaitan's revenue went from ₹6,270 crore to ₹20,976 crore — it compounded at about 16% a year over 8 years. Net profit grew from ₹123 crore to ₹604 crore, about 22% a year — faster than revenue, so margins widened. In FY2026 it kept 2.9% of revenue as net profit — its best year in the period. The latest year added 22.7% to revenue, well ahead of its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 6,270 | 123 | 2.0% |
| FY2019 | 8,058 | 188 | 2.3% |
| FY2020 | 9,418 | 229 | 2.4% |
| FY2021 | 10,367 | 277 | 2.7% |
| FY2022 | 12,470 | 263 | 2.1% |
| FY2023 | 12,744 | 220 | 1.7% |
| FY2024 | 15,484 | 262 | 1.7% |
| FY2025 | 17,099 | 346 | 2.0% |
| FY2026 | 20,976 | 604 | 2.9% |
04How Radico Khaitan gets valued — and why
Estimate withheld — model and market disagree too farOur model and the market disagree so far apart on this company that the model is the more likely one to be wrong. Rather than publish a number we cannot stand behind, we show the workings and say so.
05What decides Radico Khaitan's value
Premiumisation
Higher-priced brands lift margins.
Raw-material costs
Grain and glass prices affect profit.
State pricing
Approved price increases drive revenue.
Exports
Rampur and Jaisalmer are building global presence.
06What could go wrong
- State policy. Tax and prohibition changes affect sales.
- Input costs. Spikes squeeze margins.
- The premium. A high valuation assumes premiumisation continues.
07What the full Radico Khaitan valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete Radico Khaitan valuation
- ✓The full model workings — and exactly where the model and the market part ways
- ✓Every assumption — growth, returns and cost of capital, with sources
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against United Spirits and other consumer brands
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about Radico Khaitan
What are Radico Khaitan's brands?
Magic Moments, 8PM, Rampur single malt, Jaisalmer gin and more.
Where is Radico Khaitan based?
Rampur, Uttar Pradesh.
Radico or United Spirits — what is the difference?
United Spirits is larger and owned by Diageo; Radico is Indian-owned and growing its premium range.
Is Radico Khaitan overvalued?
At ₹4,605 the market is pricing in roughly 35% sustained growth, against the ~16% its own record supports. That is more than it has delivered, so the price is justified only if the business can hold a rate it has not previously sustained.
What is the intrinsic value of Radico Khaitan?
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.
How much debt does Radico Khaitan carry?
Debt to equity stands at 0.01, down from 0.13 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.