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The market expects much less from Suzlon than it has delivered before.
At today’s share price, buyers are assuming Suzlon grows about 19% a year, forever. Over the last ten years it actually grew about 35% a year. That is a big step down from its own record. Either the market can see a problem that the published accounts do not show yet, or it is expecting a slowdown that has not happened.
- How it is valued: Discounted cash flow.
- What the price assumes: 19% growth, against 35% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2018 and FY2026, Suzlon's revenue went from ₹8,334 crore to ₹16,732 crore — it compounded at about 9% a year over 8 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Order book. Main risk: Execution bottlenecks.
01India's wind turbine maker
Suzlon Energy, founded by the late Tulsi Tanti, designs and makes wind turbines and services wind farms in India. It was once one of the world's largest turbine makers before heavy debt brought it close to collapse.
Debt restructuring, a rights issue and a large equity raise cut its borrowing, and India's push for wind and hybrid renewables has filled its order book.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for Suzlon, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03Suzlon's record, in plain numbers
Between FY2018 and FY2026, Suzlon's revenue went from ₹8,334 crore to ₹16,732 crore — it compounded at about 9% a year over 8 years. It reported a net loss in FY2018, FY2019, FY2020 and FY2022, and closed the period with net profit of ₹3,163 crore. In FY2026 it kept 18.9% of revenue as net profit — against a low of -90.5% in FY2020 and a high of 48.4% in FY2023. The latest year added 53.6% to revenue, well ahead of its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 8,334 | -384 | -4.6% |
| FY2019 | 5,025 | -1,537 | -30.6% |
| FY2020 | 2,973 | -2,692 | -90.5% |
| FY2021 | 3,346 | 104 | 3.1% |
| FY2022 | 6,582 | -177 | -2.7% |
| FY2023 | 5,971 | 2,887 | 48.4% |
| FY2024 | 6,529 | 660 | 10.1% |
| FY2025 | 10,890 | 2,072 | 19.0% |
| FY2026 | 16,732 | 3,163 | 18.9% |
04How Suzlon gets valued — and why
Discounted cash flowThis business is valued on the cash it is expected to generate, discounted back at its cost of capital — with growth taken from its own ten-year record rather than from guidance.
05What decides Suzlon's value
Order book
Wind-turbine orders drive revenue.
Execution
Delivering turbines on time converts orders to profit.
Service income
Maintaining installed turbines gives steady revenue.
Margins
Scale and pricing lift profitability.
06What could go wrong
- Execution bottlenecks. Supply chains and land can delay projects.
- Competition. Global turbine makers compete for orders.
- Past history. Its record of financial distress makes investors cautious.
07What the full Suzlon valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete Suzlon valuation
- ✓Fair value per share — from a ten-year discounted cash flow, every step shown
- ✓The Workbench — change revenue growth, the discount rate or terminal growth and watch Suzlon's value move
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Inox Wind, Adani Green and other renewable companies
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about Suzlon
Why did Suzlon nearly collapse?
Heavy debt from rapid expansion and acquisitions.
Is Suzlon profitable now?
Yes; it has reported profits since restructuring, with a large order book.
Who founded Suzlon?
Tulsi Tanti, who died in 2022.
Is Suzlon overvalued?
At ₹38 the market is pricing in roughly 19% sustained growth, against the ~35% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
What is the intrinsic value of Suzlon?
It is computed from the filed financial statements using the method that fits this business (discounted cash flow), with every assumption shown alongside the result. The per-share figure and the full working are in the report.
How much debt does Suzlon carry?
Debt to equity stands at 0.02, down from 0.04 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.