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The market expects much less from TVS Motor than it has delivered before.
At today’s share price, buyers are assuming TVS Motor grows about 17% a year, forever. Over the last ten years it actually grew about 23% a year. That is a big step down from its own record. Either the market can see a problem that the published accounts do not show yet, or it is expecting a slowdown that has not happened.
- How it is valued: Discounted cash flow.
- What the price assumes: 17% growth, against 23% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2018 and FY2026, TVS Motor's revenue went from ₹16,656 crore to ₹56,070 crore — it compounded at about 16% a year over 8 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Domestic share gains. Main risk: EV competition.
01The fastest-growing big two-wheeler maker
TVS Motor Company, part of Chennai's TVS group, makes scooters such as the Jupiter and Ntorq, motorcycles such as the Apache and Raider, three-wheelers and the iQube electric scooter. It builds BMW's smaller motorcycles under a long-standing partnership and owns the British brand Norton.
Exports to Africa, Latin America and Asia are a large and growing share of sales. Its consolidated accounts also include TVS Credit, its vehicle-finance arm.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for TVS Motor, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03TVS Motor's record, in plain numbers
Between FY2018 and FY2026, TVS Motor's revenue went from ₹16,656 crore to ₹56,070 crore — it compounded at about 16% a year over 8 years. Net profit grew from ₹665 crore to ₹3,186 crore, about 22% a year — faster than revenue, so margins widened. In FY2026 it kept 5.7% of revenue as net profit — its best year in the period. The latest year added 27.2% to revenue, well ahead of its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 16,656 | 665 | 4.0% |
| FY2019 | 20,160 | 725 | 3.6% |
| FY2020 | 18,849 | 647 | 3.4% |
| FY2021 | 19,421 | 608 | 3.1% |
| FY2022 | 24,355 | 731 | 3.0% |
| FY2023 | 31,974 | 1,309 | 4.1% |
| FY2024 | 39,145 | 1,779 | 4.5% |
| FY2025 | 44,089 | 2,380 | 5.4% |
| FY2026 | 56,070 | 3,186 | 5.7% |
04How TVS Motor gets valued — and why
Discounted cash flowThis business is valued on the cash it is expected to generate, discounted back at its cost of capital — with growth taken from its own ten-year record rather than from guidance.
05What decides TVS Motor's value
Domestic share gains
Scooters and premium bikes have taken share.
EV scale
iQube profitability shapes the long-term picture.
Exports
Overseas sales add volume outside the Indian cycle.
Margins
Premiumisation has lifted profit per vehicle.
06What could go wrong
- EV competition. Start-ups and incumbents crowd the electric scooter market.
- Export currencies. Devaluations hit overseas sales.
- Subsidy changes. Lower EV incentives would raise prices.
07What the full TVS Motor valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete TVS Motor valuation
- ✓Fair value per share — from a ten-year discounted cash flow, every step shown
- ✓The Workbench — change revenue growth, the discount rate or terminal growth and watch TVS Motor's value move
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp and Eicher Motors
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Compare TVS Motor with peers
The same valuation, run side by side.
TVS Motor vs Bajaj AutoThe two-wheeler comparison, at different export exposure.→TVS Motor vs Hero MotoCorpHead to head on domestic motorcycles and scooters.→TVS Motor vs Eicher MotorsMass-market two-wheelers against a premium niche.→09Questions people ask about TVS Motor
Why has TVS Motor grown so fast?
Share gains in scooters and premium motorcycles, a successful EV and strong exports.
Does TVS make BMW motorcycles?
Yes — it builds BMW's sub-500cc models under a partnership.
TVS or Bajaj Auto — which is better value?
Both are valued on the same cash-flow model; the comparison page sets them side by side.
Is TVS Motor overvalued?
At ₹4,495 the market is pricing in roughly 17% sustained growth, against the ~23% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
What is the intrinsic value of TVS Motor?
It is computed from the filed financial statements using the method that fits this business (discounted cash flow), with every assumption shown alongside the result. The per-share figure and the full working are in the report.
How much debt does TVS Motor carry?
Debt to equity stands at 1.31, down from 1.66 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.