A valuation of UltraTech Cement (ULTRACEMCO) built from its filed accounts — ten years of results, the method that fits this business, and what today's price already assumes.
The market expects UltraTech Cement to do better than it ever has.
At today’s share price, buyers are assuming UltraTech Cement grows about 35% a year, forever. Over the last ten years it actually grew about 14% a year. So the share price only makes sense if the business improves on its own track record. If it simply carries on as before, buyers today have paid for something they will not get.
Worked backwards from today's share price: the growth UltraTech Cement must sustain to justify what it costs, against what its own record supports.
How to read this. The number on the left is what today’s share price quietly takes for granted about the future. The number on the right is what UltraTech Cement has actually managed over the last ten years. When the two are far apart, that gap is the bet you would be taking.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit as filed, in ₹ crore.
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2017 | 25,375 | 2,714 | 10.7% |
| Mar 2018 | 30,979 | 2,224 | 7.2% |
| Mar 2019 | 41,462 | 2,400 | 5.8% |
| Mar 2020 | 42,430 | 5,751 | 13.6% |
| Mar 2021 | 44,726 | 5,462 | 12.2% |
| Mar 2022 | 52,599 | 7,334 | 13.9% |
| Mar 2023 | 63,240 | 5,073 | 8.0% |
| Mar 2024 | 70,908 | 7,004 | 9.9% |
| Mar 2025 | 75,955 | 6,040 | 8.0% |
| Mar 2026 | 88,512 | 8,188 | 9.3% |
This business is valued on the cash it is expected to generate, discounted back at its cost of capital — with growth taken from its own ten-year record rather than from guidance.
Discounted cash flowThe same valuation, run side by side.
UltraTech Cement vs LTCement sells into exactly the construction LT wins the contracts for.→UltraTech Cement vs JSW SteelThe two materials a building consumes most of, on the same capex cycle.→UltraTech Cement vs Ambuja CementsThe nearest listed cement comparison.At ₹12,075 the market is pricing in roughly 35% sustained growth, against the ~14% its own record supports. That is more than it has delivered, so the price is justified only if the business can hold a rate it has not previously sustained.
It is computed from the filed financial statements using the method that fits this business (discounted cash flow), with every assumption shown alongside the result. The per-share figure and the full working are in the report.
A price-to-earnings of 41.2 and price-to-book of 4.64 sit against a return on equity of 11.1%. Whether that multiple is deserved depends on how durable the return is — which is exactly what the valuation tests.
Revenue went from ₹0.25 lakh crore to ₹0.89 lakh crore over the period shown, while return on equity moved from 8.8% to 10.6%. Growing scale on a rising return is a very different proposition from growing scale on a falling one.
The dividend yield is 1.99%, which is a meaningful part of the total return.
Debt to equity stands at 0.31, down from 0.35 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.
From published financial statements. The method is chosen to fit the business — a bank on excess return, a regulated utility on its rate base, a conglomerate by its parts — and every assumption is shown with its source. When the numbers do not support an estimate, no estimate is published. This is an educational research tool: it reports what the model computed and does not recommend buying or selling anything.
A cost of capital of 11.78%, growth drawn from the company's own record rather than from guidance, and the valuation method that fits the business. All of them are listed in the report, with how much each one moves the answer.