On this page ▾
We do not publish one number for United Spirits — and here is why.
On today's figures the market pays roughly 6.3 times what our model says United Spirits is worth. On a company this widely followed, a gap that large almost always means our model is missing something rather than that thousands of investors are wrong. So we show the workings and say plainly that we cannot stand behind a single figure here.
- How it is valued: no single figure is published here — our model and the market disagree too far.
- What the price assumes: 35% growth, against 0% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2018 and FY2026, United Spirits' revenue went from ₹26,069 crore to ₹27,816 crore — it barely moved over 8 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Premiumisation. Main risk: State policy.
01India's largest spirits company
United Spirits, majority-owned by Britain's Diageo, is India's largest spirits company. Its brands include McDowell's No.1, Royal Challenge, Signature and Antiquity, and it sells Diageo's international brands such as Johnnie Walker in India.
It also owns the Royal Challengers Bengaluru cricket franchise. Alcohol is taxed and priced state by state in India, which shapes margins.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for United Spirits, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03United Spirits' record, in plain numbers
Between FY2018 and FY2026, United Spirits' revenue went from ₹26,069 crore to ₹27,816 crore — it barely moved over 8 years. Net profit grew from ₹562 crore to ₹1,838 crore, about 16% a year — faster than revenue, so margins widened. In FY2026 it kept 6.6% of revenue as net profit — its best year in the period. The latest year added 2.0% to revenue, close to its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 26,069 | 562 | 2.2% |
| FY2019 | 28,872 | 684 | 2.4% |
| FY2020 | 28,824 | 621 | 2.2% |
| FY2021 | 27,418 | 362 | 1.3% |
| FY2022 | 31,062 | 811 | 2.6% |
| FY2023 | 27,815 | 1,126 | 4.0% |
| FY2024 | 26,018 | 1,408 | 5.4% |
| FY2025 | 27,276 | 1,582 | 5.8% |
| FY2026 | 27,816 | 1,838 | 6.6% |
04How United Spirits gets valued — and why
Estimate withheld — model and market disagree too farOur model and the market disagree so far apart on this company that the model is the more likely one to be wrong. Rather than publish a number we cannot stand behind, we show the workings and say so.
05What decides United Spirits' value
Premiumisation
Drinkers moving to pricier brands lifts margins.
State pricing
Approved price increases in states drive profit.
Input costs
Glass and grain-alcohol prices affect margins.
Brand investment
Marketing supports premium brands.
06What could go wrong
- State policy. Prohibition or tax changes in a state can hit sales.
- The premium. A high valuation assumes premiumisation continues.
- Input costs. Spikes in alcohol or glass prices squeeze margins.
07What the full United Spirits valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete United Spirits valuation
- ✓The full model workings — and exactly where the model and the market part ways
- ✓Every assumption — growth, returns and cost of capital, with sources
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Radico Khaitan and other consumer brands
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about United Spirits
Who owns United Spirits?
Diageo holds the majority of its shares.
What are United Spirits' biggest brands?
McDowell's No.1, Royal Challenge, Signature, Antiquity and Diageo imports.
Why do state policies matter for United Spirits?
Alcohol pricing, taxes and distribution are set by each state.
Is United Spirits overvalued?
At ₹1,417 the market is pricing in roughly 35% sustained growth, against the ~0% its own record supports. That is more than it has delivered, so the price is justified only if the business can hold a rate it has not previously sustained.
What is the intrinsic value of United Spirits?
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.
How much debt does United Spirits carry?
Debt to equity stands at 0.00, against 0.00 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.