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The market expects much less from Ajanta Pharma than it has delivered before.
At today’s share price, buyers are assuming Ajanta Pharma grows about 9% a year, forever. Over the last ten years it actually grew about 13% a year. That is a big step down from its own record. Either the market can see a problem that the published accounts do not show yet, or it is expecting a slowdown that has not happened.
- How it is valued: Discounted cash flow.
- What the price assumes: 9% growth, against 13% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2018 and FY2026, Ajanta Pharma's revenue went from ₹2,131 crore to ₹5,453 crore — it compounded at about 12% a year over 8 years.
- Biggest swing factor: India branded growth. Main risk: Currency.
01A Mumbai branded-generics company
Ajanta Pharma, run by the Agrawal family, sells branded generics in India — strong in cardiology, ophthalmology and dermatology — and in more than 30 emerging markets in Asia and Africa.
It also sells generics in the US and supplies anti-malarials to institutional buyers in Africa.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for Ajanta Pharma, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03Ajanta Pharma's record, in plain numbers
Between FY2018 and FY2026, Ajanta Pharma's revenue went from ₹2,131 crore to ₹5,453 crore — it compounded at about 12% a year over 8 years. Net profit grew from ₹469 crore to ₹1,056 crore, about 11% a year — slower than revenue, so margins narrowed. In FY2026 it kept 19.4% of revenue as net profit — against a low of 15.7% in FY2023 and a high of 22.6% in FY2021. The latest year added 17.3% to revenue, well ahead of its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 2,131 | 469 | 22.0% |
| FY2019 | 2,055 | 387 | 18.8% |
| FY2020 | 2,588 | 468 | 18.1% |
| FY2021 | 2,890 | 654 | 22.6% |
| FY2022 | 3,341 | 713 | 21.3% |
| FY2023 | 3,743 | 588 | 15.7% |
| FY2024 | 4,209 | 816 | 19.4% |
| FY2025 | 4,648 | 920 | 19.8% |
| FY2026 | 5,453 | 1,056 | 19.4% |
04How Ajanta Pharma gets valued — and why
Discounted cash flowThis business is valued on the cash it is expected to generate, discounted back at its cost of capital — with growth taken from its own ten-year record rather than from guidance.
05What decides Ajanta Pharma's value
India branded growth
Specialty therapies drive margins.
Emerging markets
Branded sales in Asia and Africa.
US launches
New generics add revenue.
Cost control
Margins have stayed high.
06What could go wrong
- Currency. Emerging-market currencies can fall.
- Institutional tenders. Lumpy anti-malarial orders.
- Price controls. Indian price caps.
07What the full Ajanta Pharma valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete Ajanta Pharma valuation
- ✓Fair value per share — from a ten-year discounted cash flow, every step shown
- ✓The Workbench — change revenue growth, the discount rate or terminal growth and watch Ajanta's value move
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Torrent Pharma, Alkem and other drugmakers
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about Ajanta Pharma
Where does Ajanta Pharma sell?
India, Asia, Africa and the US.
What is Ajanta strong in?
Cardiology, ophthalmology and dermatology in India.
Who runs Ajanta Pharma?
The Agrawal family.
Is Ajanta Pharma overvalued?
At ₹3,284 the market is pricing in roughly 9% sustained growth, against the ~13% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
What is the intrinsic value of Ajanta Pharma?
It is computed from the filed financial statements using the method that fits this business (discounted cash flow), with every assumption shown alongside the result. The per-share figure and the full working are in the report.
How much debt does Ajanta Pharma carry?
Debt to equity stands at 0.00, against 0.00 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.