A like-for-like valuation of ADANI POWER (ADANIPOWER) and NTPC (NTPC), each built from its own filed accounts and set side by side — price against estimated worth, on the same measures.
ADANI POWER and NTPC screen at similar value right now.
ADANI POWER trades 31% below our estimate of fair value, and NTPC 30% below our estimate of fair value. The two are close enough that neither stands out as the cheaper of the pair on price against estimated worth alone.
Every figure below is drawn from each company's own filed statements. Estimated fair value is the per-share figure our engine will stand behind; where a business needs a model that does not reduce to one number, it is shown as “—”.
| ADANI POWERADANIPOWER | NTPCNTPC | |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | ₹202 | ₹330 |
| Market cap | ₹3.90L Cr | ₹3.20L Cr |
| Estimated fair value | ₹265 | ₹428 |
| Upside to fair value | +31% | +30% |
| P/E | 27.3 | 11.5 |
| P/B | 6.00 | 1.57 |
| Return on equity | —% | —% |
| Debt to equity | 0.14 | 0.84 |
| Valued on | Discounted cash flow | Excess return — the correct lens for a regulated utility |
Private thermal generation against the state-owned incumbent, on the same demand.
Worked backwards from today's share price: the rate each company must sustain to justify what it costs, against what its own ten-year record supports.
Same method, same filed accounts — each of these works both companies through to a fair value.
ADANI POWER trades 31% below our estimate of fair value, and NTPC 30% below our estimate of fair value. The two are close enough that neither stands out as the cheaper of the pair on price against estimated worth alone.
Each company is valued from its own filed financial statements — ten years of results — using the method that fits that business, then set beside the other on price, valuation multiples, return on equity and what today's share price already assumes. It is a like-for-like comparison of the workings, not investment advice.
No — and that is deliberate. ADANI POWER is valued on discounted cash flow, NTPC on excess return — the correct lens for a regulated utility, because the two businesses do not work the same way. Forcing one model onto both would misstate at least one of them, so each is valued on the lens that fits it and only the conclusions are compared.