A like-for-like valuation of NTPC (NTPC) and ONGC (ONGC), each built from its own filed accounts and set side by side — price against estimated worth, on the same measures.
NTPC is priced further below its estimated worth than ONGC.
NTPC trades 31% below our estimate of fair value, against 18% below our estimate of fair value for ONGC. A wider discount is not automatically the safer buy — it can equally mean the market sees a risk the accounts do not show yet — but on price against estimated value, NTPC is the cheaper of the two today.
Every figure below is drawn from each company's own filed statements. Estimated fair value is the per-share figure our engine will stand behind; where a business needs a model that does not reduce to one number, it is shown as “—”.
| NTPCNTPC | ONGCONGC | |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | ₹330 | ₹236 |
| Market cap | ₹3.20L Cr | ₹2.97L Cr |
| Estimated fair value | ₹433 | ₹278 |
| Upside to fair value | +31% | +18% |
| P/E | 11.5 | 6.8 |
| P/B | 1.57 | 0.80 |
| Return on equity | —% | —% |
| Debt to equity | 0.84 | 0.48 |
| Valued on | Excess return — the correct lens for a regulated utility | Discounted cash flow |
Both state-controlled energy, one upstream and one downstream of the meter.
Worked backwards from today's share price: the rate each company must sustain to justify what it costs, against what its own ten-year record supports.
Same method, same filed accounts — each of these works both companies through to a fair value.
NTPC trades 31% below our estimate of fair value, against 18% below our estimate of fair value for ONGC. A wider discount is not automatically the safer buy — it can equally mean the market sees a risk the accounts do not show yet — but on price against estimated value, NTPC is the cheaper of the two today.
Each company is valued from its own filed financial statements — ten years of results — using the method that fits that business, then set beside the other on price, valuation multiples, return on equity and what today's share price already assumes. It is a like-for-like comparison of the workings, not investment advice.
No — and that is deliberate. NTPC is valued on excess return — the correct lens for a regulated utility, ONGC on discounted cash flow, because the two businesses do not work the same way. Forcing one model onto both would misstate at least one of them, so each is valued on the lens that fits it and only the conclusions are compared.