A like-for-like valuation of COAL INDIA (COALINDIA) and NTPC (NTPC), each built from its own filed accounts and set side by side — price against estimated worth, on the same measures.
COAL INDIA is priced further below its estimated worth than NTPC.
COAL INDIA trades 124% below our estimate of fair value, against 31% below our estimate of fair value for NTPC. A wider discount is not automatically the safer buy — it can equally mean the market sees a risk the accounts do not show yet — but on price against estimated value, COAL INDIA is the cheaper of the two today.
Every figure below is drawn from each company's own filed statements. Estimated fair value is the per-share figure our engine will stand behind; where a business needs a model that does not reduce to one number, it is shown as “—”.
| COAL INDIACOALINDIA | NTPCNTPC | |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | ₹419 | ₹330 |
| Market cap | ₹2.58L Cr | ₹3.20L Cr |
| Estimated fair value | ₹939 | ₹433 |
| Upside to fair value | +124% | +31% |
| P/E | 8.3 | 11.5 |
| P/B | 2.17 | 1.57 |
| Return on equity | —% | —% |
| Debt to equity | 0.05 | 0.84 |
| Valued on | Discounted cash flow | Excess return — the correct lens for a regulated utility |
The miner against its largest single customer.
Worked backwards from today's share price: the rate each company must sustain to justify what it costs, against what its own ten-year record supports.
Same method, same filed accounts — each of these works both companies through to a fair value.
COAL INDIA trades 124% below our estimate of fair value, against 31% below our estimate of fair value for NTPC. A wider discount is not automatically the safer buy — it can equally mean the market sees a risk the accounts do not show yet — but on price against estimated value, COAL INDIA is the cheaper of the two today.
Each company is valued from its own filed financial statements — ten years of results — using the method that fits that business, then set beside the other on price, valuation multiples, return on equity and what today's share price already assumes. It is a like-for-like comparison of the workings, not investment advice.
No — and that is deliberate. COAL INDIA is valued on discounted cash flow, NTPC on excess return — the correct lens for a regulated utility, because the two businesses do not work the same way. Forcing one model onto both would misstate at least one of them, so each is valued on the lens that fits it and only the conclusions are compared.