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The market expects much less from Dixon Technologies than it has delivered before.
At today’s share price, buyers are assuming Dixon Technologies grows about 15% a year, forever. Over the last ten years it actually grew about 35% a year. That is a big step down from its own record. Either the market can see a problem that the published accounts do not show yet, or it is expecting a slowdown that has not happened.
- How it is valued: Discounted cash flow.
- What the price assumes: 15% growth, against 35% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2018 and FY2026, Dixon Technologies' revenue went from ₹2,853 crore to ₹48,873 crore — it compounded at about 43% a year over 8 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Smartphone volumes. Main risk: Thin margins.
01Making electronics for other brands
Dixon Technologies, based in Noida and led by Sunil Vachani, is India's largest home-grown electronics manufacturing services company. It assembles mobile phones, televisions, washing machines, lighting and other products for brands that sell them under their own names.
Government production-linked incentives (PLI) for local manufacturing have driven rapid growth, particularly in smartphones, and it has formed joint ventures with Chinese component makers.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for Dixon Technologies, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03Dixon Technologies' record, in plain numbers
Between FY2018 and FY2026, Dixon Technologies' revenue went from ₹2,853 crore to ₹48,873 crore — it compounded at about 43% a year over 8 years. Net profit grew from ₹61 crore to ₹1,644 crore, about 51% a year — faster than revenue, so margins widened. In FY2026 it kept 3.4% of revenue as net profit — its best year in the period. The latest year added 25.8% to revenue, well behind its own long-run pace. FY2019 is missing from the filed series used here, so that year is left out rather than estimated.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 2,853 | 61 | 2.1% |
| FY2020 | 4,400 | 120 | 2.7% |
| FY2021 | 6,448 | 160 | 2.5% |
| FY2022 | 10,697 | 190 | 1.8% |
| FY2023 | 12,192 | 255 | 2.1% |
| FY2024 | 17,691 | 375 | 2.1% |
| FY2025 | 38,860 | 1,233 | 3.2% |
| FY2026 | 48,873 | 1,644 | 3.4% |
04How Dixon Technologies gets valued — and why
Discounted cash flowThis business is valued on the cash it is expected to generate, discounted back at its cost of capital — with growth taken from its own ten-year record rather than from guidance.
05What decides Dixon Technologies' value
Smartphone volumes
Mobile phones are the biggest growth engine.
New customers
Winning more brands diversifies the book.
Component manufacturing
Making displays and parts could lift margins.
Incentives
PLI payments support profitability.
06What could go wrong
- Thin margins. Small cost changes move profit a lot.
- Customer concentration. A few brands drive much of revenue.
- Policy. Incentives and approvals for Chinese partners can change.
07What the full Dixon valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete Dixon Technologies valuation
- ✓Fair value per share — from a ten-year discounted cash flow, every step shown
- ✓The Workbench — change revenue growth, the discount rate or terminal growth and watch Dixon's value move
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Polycab, Havells and other manufacturers
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about Dixon Technologies
What does Dixon make?
Smartphones, TVs, appliances, lighting and other electronics for other brands.
Why are Dixon's margins thin?
Contract manufacturers earn a fee for assembly; the brands keep most of the margin.
How do PLI incentives help Dixon?
They pay a share of incremental sales for local manufacturing.
Is Dixon Technologies overvalued?
At ₹12,798 the market is pricing in roughly 15% sustained growth, against the ~35% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
What is the intrinsic value of Dixon Technologies?
It is computed from the filed financial statements using the method that fits this business (discounted cash flow), with every assumption shown alongside the result. The per-share figure and the full working are in the report.
How much debt does Dixon Technologies carry?
Debt to equity stands at 0.08, down from 0.11 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.