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The market expects GSK Pharma India to do better than it ever has.
At today’s share price, buyers are assuming GSK Pharma India grows about 24% a year, forever. Over the last ten years it actually grew about 4% a year. So the share price only makes sense if the business improves on its own track record. If it simply carries on as before, buyers today have paid for something they will not get.
- How it is valued: Discounted cash flow.
- What the price assumes: 24% growth, against 4% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2018 and FY2026, GSK Pharma India's revenue went from ₹2,896 crore to ₹3,822 crore — it compounded at about 4% a year over 8 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Core brands. Main risk: Price controls.
01A British drugmaker's Indian arm
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals, majority-owned by Britain's GSK plc, sells branded medicines in India including Augmentin, Calpol, T-Bact, Neosporin and Betnovate, and vaccines for children and adults.
It has pruned slower brands and focused on fewer, larger ones and on specialty medicines from its parent.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for GSK Pharma India, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03GSK Pharma India's record, in plain numbers
Between FY2018 and FY2026, GSK Pharma India's revenue went from ₹2,896 crore to ₹3,822 crore — it compounded at about 4% a year over 8 years. Net profit grew from ₹351 crore to ₹1,036 crore, about 14% a year — faster than revenue, so margins widened. In FY2026 it kept 27.1% of revenue as net profit — against a low of 2.9% in FY2020 and a high of 51.7% in FY2022. The latest year added 1.9% to revenue, close to its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 2,896 | 351 | 12.1% |
| FY2019 | 3,128 | 445 | 14.2% |
| FY2020 | 3,224 | 93 | 2.9% |
| FY2021 | 3,199 | 358 | 11.2% |
| FY2022 | 3,278 | 1,695 | 51.7% |
| FY2023 | 3,252 | 611 | 18.8% |
| FY2024 | 3,454 | 590 | 17.1% |
| FY2025 | 3,749 | 928 | 24.7% |
| FY2026 | 3,822 | 1,036 | 27.1% |
04How GSK Pharma India gets valued — and why
Discounted cash flowThis business is valued on the cash it is expected to generate, discounted back at its cost of capital — with growth taken from its own ten-year record rather than from guidance.
05What decides GSK Pharma India's value
Core brands
Large brands drive most sales.
Vaccines
Adult and paediatric vaccines add growth.
Specialty launches
New products from the parent.
Margins
A leaner portfolio has lifted profitability.
06What could go wrong
- Price controls. Many medicines fall under price caps.
- Slow growth. Mature brands grow slowly.
- Parent decisions. Product allocation is set by GSK.
07What the full GSK Pharma India valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete GSK Pharma India valuation
- ✓Fair value per share — from a ten-year discounted cash flow, every step shown
- ✓The Workbench — change revenue growth, the discount rate or terminal growth and watch GSK Pharma's value move
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Abbott India, Sun Pharma and other drugmakers
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Questions people ask about GSK Pharma India
What are GSK Pharma India's brands?
Augmentin, Calpol, T-Bact, Neosporin, Betnovate and vaccines.
Who owns GSK Pharma India?
Britain's GSK plc holds the majority.
Why did GSK Pharma's profit jump in FY2022?
One-time gains rather than a change in the core business.
Is GSK Pharma India overvalued?
At ₹2,673 the market is pricing in roughly 24% sustained growth, against the ~4% its own record supports. That is more than it has delivered, so the price is justified only if the business can hold a rate it has not previously sustained.
What is the intrinsic value of GSK Pharma India?
It is computed from the filed financial statements using the method that fits this business (discounted cash flow), with every assumption shown alongside the result. The per-share figure and the full working are in the report.
How much debt does GSK Pharma India carry?
Debt to equity stands at 0.00, against 0.00 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.