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We do not publish one number for Indian Oil — and here is why.
On today's figures our model puts Indian Oil at roughly 2.6 times what the market pays for it. On a company this widely followed, a gap that large almost always means our model is missing something rather than that thousands of investors are wrong. So we show the workings and say plainly that we cannot stand behind a single figure here.
- How it is valued: no single figure is published here — our model and the market disagree too far.
- What the price assumes: 0% growth, against 2% the model takes from its own record.
- Ten-year record: Between FY2018 and FY2026, Indian Oil's revenue went from ₹5,06,428 crore to ₹9,01,453 crore — it compounded at about 7% a year over 8 years.
- Biggest swing factor: Gross refining margins. Main risk: Government pricing.
01India's biggest refiner and fuel retailer
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is a state-owned oil company and India's largest refiner, with refineries including Panipat, Mathura, Gujarat and Paradip. It runs the country's largest network of petrol pumps and of product pipelines.
It also makes petrochemicals, sells LPG under the Indane brand and has stakes in city gas and renewable ventures. Retail fuel prices are influenced by the government, so IOC's marketing margins can turn negative when crude prices spike.
02What the market is assuming
Work backwards from today's share price and you can see what buyers are quietly taking for granted. Here is the growth that price implies for Indian Oil, next to what the model assumes from the company's own record.
The further apart these two numbers are, the bigger the bet a buyer at today's price is making.
03Indian Oil's record, in plain numbers
Between FY2018 and FY2026, Indian Oil's revenue went from ₹5,06,428 crore to ₹9,01,453 crore — it compounded at about 7% a year over 8 years. It reported a net loss in FY2020, and closed the period with net profit of ₹43,677 crore. In FY2026 it kept 4.8% of revenue as net profit — against a low of -0.3% in FY2020 and a high of 4.9% in FY2024. The latest year added 4.9% to revenue, close to its own long-run pace.
Revenue and earnings per share in ₹, return on equity and leverage as ratios — all from the filed statements.
Revenue and net profit by year (₹ crore)
| Year | Revenue | Net profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 5,06,428 | 21,346 | 4.2% |
| FY2019 | 6,17,243 | 17,274 | 2.8% |
| FY2020 | 5,76,589 | -1,877 | -0.3% |
| FY2021 | 5,20,237 | 21,762 | 4.2% |
| FY2022 | 7,36,731 | 25,727 | 3.5% |
| FY2023 | 9,51,410 | 11,704 | 1.2% |
| FY2024 | 8,81,235 | 43,161 | 4.9% |
| FY2025 | 8,59,363 | 13,789 | 1.6% |
| FY2026 | 9,01,453 | 43,677 | 4.8% |
04How Indian Oil gets valued — and why
Estimate withheld — model and market disagree too farOur model and the market disagree so far apart on this company that the model is the more likely one to be wrong. Rather than publish a number we cannot stand behind, we show the workings and say so.
05What decides Indian Oil's value
Gross refining margins
The difference between product prices and crude costs drives refining profit.
Marketing margins
How far retail prices are allowed to track costs decides fuel-retail profit.
Inventory effects
Rising crude prices create inventory gains; falling prices create losses.
Petrochemicals
Expansion into petrochemicals adds a new, also cyclical, profit stream.
06What could go wrong
- Government pricing. Retail fuel prices can be held down when crude rises.
- Crude volatility. Sharp moves in oil prices create big swings in reported profit.
- Energy transition. Electric vehicles will slowly reduce fuel demand.
07What the full Indian Oil valuation shows
Sign in free to see the complete Indian Oil valuation
- ✓Fair value per share — from a ten-year discounted cash flow, every step shown
- ✓The Workbench — change revenue growth, the discount rate or terminal growth and watch Indian Oil's value move
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — and exactly which assumptions move between them
- ✓Peer comparison — against Reliance Industries, ONGC and NTPC
- ✓Downloadable report — the full write-up, yours to keep
08Compare Indian Oil with peers
The same valuation, run side by side.
Indian Oil vs Reliance IndustriesState refining and marketing against the largest private refiner.→Indian Oil vs ONGCRefining and marketing against upstream exploration.→Indian Oil vs NTPCTwo state-controlled energy majors on very different economics.→09Questions people ask about Indian Oil
Why does Indian Oil's profit swing so much?
Because refining and marketing margins and inventory values move with crude prices, and retail fuel prices do not always follow.
Is Indian Oil a dividend stock?
It has paid regular dividends, but they move with profit. The computed dividend answer below uses today's yield.
Indian Oil or Reliance — which is better value?
State refining against the largest private refiner, compared side by side on their own page.
Is Indian Oil overvalued?
At ₹144 the market is pricing in roughly 0% sustained growth, against the ~2% its own record supports. That is less than it has delivered — on these numbers the market is asking the business for less than its own record, which usually means it doubts the record repeats.
What is the intrinsic value of Indian Oil?
This business is a group of operations with different economics, so a single blended figure would describe none of them. The parts are valued separately and the breakdown is in the report, rather than one number that cannot be defended.
How much debt does Indian Oil carry?
Debt to equity stands at 0.31, down from 0.55 at the start of the period — the balance sheet is a core input to the cost of capital used here.