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Today's prices ask more of ONGC than of Indian Oil.
At current prices, buyers of Indian Oil are assuming about 0% growth against 2% in its own record; for ONGC it is 0% against 0%. That shows which share needs more to go right — not which is cheaper. How far each trades from its estimated fair value is in the full valuations.
- Valuation method: Indian Oil on estimate withheld; ONGC on discounted cash flow.
- Size: ONGC is worth about 1.4 times Indian Oil on the stock market.
- Record: On revenue the two have grown at much the same pace: Indian Oil compounded at about 7% a year (FY2018–FY2026) and ONGC at about 8% (FY2018–FY2026).
- What to watch: gross refining margins at Indian Oil; crude oil prices at ONGC.
| Indian Oil | ONGC | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | ₹144 | ₹225 |
| Market cap | ₹1.98L Cr | ₹2.83L Cr |
| P/E | 4.2 | 5.7 |
| P/B | 0.90 | 0.76 |
| Fair value 🔒 sign in | ₹0,000 | ₹0,000 |
| Upside 🔒 sign in | +00% | +00% |
| Valued on | Estimate withheld | Discounted cash flow |
01Two businesses
India's biggest refiner and fuel retailer
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is a state-owned oil company and India's largest refiner, with refineries including Panipat, Mathura, Gujarat and Paradip. It runs the country's largest network of petrol pumps and of product pipelines.
India's oil and gas producer — and a refiner too
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation is India's largest producer of crude oil and natural gas, majority-owned by the Government of India. Its overseas arm, ONGC Videsh, holds oil and gas assets in other countries.
02The records side by side
On revenue the two have grown at much the same pace: Indian Oil compounded at about 7% a year (FY2018–FY2026) and ONGC at about 8% (FY2018–FY2026). By revenue, Indian Oil is about 1.4 times the size of ONGC. Indian Oil kept 4.8% of revenue as net profit in FY2026; ONGC kept 7.5% of revenue as net profit in FY2026. Indian Oil reported a net loss in FY2020; ONGC was profitable in every year shown.
Full ten-year tables and charts are on each company's page: Indian Oil · ONGC.
03What each price assumes
Work backwards from each share price and you can see what buyers are taking for granted — the rate each company must sustain to justify what it costs, against what its own record supports.
04What decides each one's value
- Gross refining marginsThe difference between product prices and crude costs drives refining profit.
- Marketing marginsHow far retail prices are allowed to track costs decides fuel-retail profit.
- Crude oil pricesHigher prices lift ONGC's realisations, though government levies have capped the gains in the past.
- Production volumesMany fields are mature; new deep-water projects need to offset natural decline.
05What could go wrong
- Government pricingRetail fuel prices can be held down when crude rises.
- Crude volatilitySharp moves in oil prices create big swings in reported profit.
- Government interventionWindfall taxes and pricing controls have taken away upside before.
- Field declineWithout new discoveries, output falls year after year.
06Which is better value?
Sign in free to see which trades further below its worth
- ✓Both fair values per share — each on the method that fits the business
- ✓Every step of both workings — growth, margins and cost of capital, with sources
- ✓Bull, base and bear cases — for each company
- ✓Downloadable reports — the full write-up for each, yours to keep
08Questions people ask
Is Indian Oil or ONGC better value?
That turns on how far each share trades from its estimated fair value. Both figures, with every step of the working, are in the full valuations, free to view once you sign in. On the public numbers, Indian Oil trades at 4.2 times earnings and 0.90 times book value, and ONGC at 5.7 times earnings and 0.76 times book value — but multiples alone mislead when two businesses work differently, which is why each is valued on the method that fits it.
What is the difference between Indian Oil and ONGC?
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is a state-owned oil company and India's largest refiner, with refineries including Panipat, Mathura, Gujarat and Paradip. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation is India's largest producer of crude oil and natural gas, majority-owned by the Government of India.
Are Indian Oil and ONGC valued the same way?
No. Indian Oil is valued on estimate withheld and ONGC on discounted cash flow, because forcing one model onto both would misstate at least one of them.
What does today's price assume for Indian Oil and ONGC?
Worked backwards from the share price, Indian Oil needs about 0% growth and ONGC about 0% growth, against 2% and 0% in their own records.